In today’s newsletter: The wrong lesson to learn from the indie boom, a visit to watchmaker Gregory Proz, hands-on with the Ming Polymesh, and is Rolex about to introduce a new desk clock? I’m not sure it can beat Jaeger-LeCoultre’s latest effort.

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Subcribers can find my 15 rapid-fire takeaways from Watches & Wonders here, full Geneva Dispatch here, or scroll through the Geneva photo dump and Q&A here.

You can also listen to today’s newsletter here, and subscribe on Spotify or Apple:

The newest independent watchmaker in Geneva

On my last day in Geneva, I visited a watchmaker most people at Watches and Wonders hadn’t heard of.

That can be a good or a bad sign. The world of independent watchmakers is crowded. Render drops, deposit lists, and $100k price tags for watches that don’t even exist yet. Some of these guys are extremely talented. Others went to school, learned to file some nice angles, and figured out that “independent watchmaker” is a good business if you can find the right collectors.

I was put onto watchmaker Gregory Proz by a couple of collectors who have made deposits for the Genese, his first independent watch.

Proz is 40—older than most first-time independents. He won the GPHG Best Young Student award nearly two decades ago. After that, he worked at BNB Concept, the complications maker that eventually folded and was acquired by Hublot. It’s where Rexhep Rexhepi got his complications chops. Gregory and Rexhep have been friends for nearly 20 years. Proz later went back to get a master's degree in project management before setting off on his own.

The Genese (French for genesis) is a limited run of 20 pieces, with an exposed movement and moonphase indicator on the caseback. The front is very much on trend: an independent watchmaker playing with symmetry and obsessing over finishing. But the movement architecture and caseback complication—complete with a hand-painted moonphase disc—is a genuine twist. It wasn’t finished when I visited, but the concept is more considered than most in this genre.

Proz says he can rely on his old friend Rexhep if he needs certain parts.

“If I need a tool, I just walk over and ask Rexhep,” is how he put it to me.

Proz currently has one hand-finishing specialist, Fabian, working with him. He’s looking to hire another, but said it’s not easy to find someone with the skills needed to finish and assemble the Genese.

Geneve Genese

Proz was born and raised in Geneva. I briefly met his dad on the way in, who was the director of the Théâtre du Léman, where the annual GPHG awards are typically held. A few of the old theater seats are sitting in Proz’s workshop, waiting for visitors. It feels fitting that Proz is one of the few watchmakers you’ll see working in the windows while walking through Geneva, along with Rexhep and Xhvedet Rexhepi.

As for the Genese: It’s 39x9mm with a triple-stepped bezel and caseback. On the prototype he showed me, Proz has also added stepped lugs that weren’t in the original render. I sent photos to two collectors I know who have made deposits. One loved the lugs; the other didn’t. I’m with the skeptic—it starts to feel ornamental, one flourish too many. But that’s a matter of taste. Proz told me he also wants to refine the crown. This iterative process is exactly what you sign up for when you put a deposit on an idea. It’s patronage in the most literal sense.1

The Genese is CHF 73k, or close to $100k by the time it clears U.S. customs. He quickly sold all 20 slots after after posting the first render last October. Off the popularity of the Genese, he also has limited-edition versions in the pipeline for Seddiqi and is in discussions with another major retailer in Asia.

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This is the audio edition of the April 28 newsletter, a visit to Geneva’s newest independent watchmaker.

Show Notes

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On my last day in Geneva, I went to my favorite coffee spot. The barista recognizes me, or at least knows I’m in Geneva a few times a year “for watches.”

He told me about a few folks who had just been in with a bunch of watches spread across the table. He even took a photo because he vaguely recognized Simon Brette’s Chronometre Artisans:

It turns out the eponymous founders of Aubert & Ramel were there showing a prototype of their Ourea. The pair of watchmakers won the 2024 FP Journe Prize and worked for Simon Brette for about a year before starting their own brand.

The Ourea is beautiful, even if it reformulates the general idea of the Chronometre Artisans—finely finished, time only (with a price approaching $100k)—in their own style.

It’s a wonder

Everyone, from the customs agent at the Zurich Airport to the barista at my favorite coffee spot, knows about Watches and Wonders now, which wasn’t the case when I first attended in 2023.

It’s as much about the wonders as the watches. More than previous years, I saw Watches and Wonders coverage about Watches and Wonders—the best booths, best coffee, best tote bags. Thierry Stern carrying a Rolex tote while shaking hands with CEO Jean-Frederic Dufour.

There’s the good of that: If the purpose of Watches and Wonders is to create a global moment for Swiss watchmaking, it is a wild success.1 Those beige halls have become instantly recognizable. I was shocked by the amount of content wherein the primary purpose of the content was to show that yes, I was there too. Those Rolex totes are already listed for $200+ on eBay, while everyone points out their resemblance to the work of artist Alighiero Boetti.

There’s also the bad: I heard of at least a few watch thefts across Geneva last week. The most notable involved a media member reportedly being stabbed in front of a bar late the night before Watches & Wonders officially began. Apparently, attackers were trying to steal his Octo Finissimo.

I heard another story of a retailer having a couple of Patek Philippes swiped after leaving his bag unattended in a hotel lobby. If the customs agent and the barista know that millions of dollars of watches are descending on Geneva for six fast-paced days of watches, surely the thieves know.

FP Journe didn’t even allow photos at their appointments, and honestly, I don’t blame them.

Watches have a place in culture like never before, and that’s mostly a massive positive. Watches and Wonders is a microcosm of all the good and potential bad that comes with that.

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Wheels up

I was on the same flight back with Jonathan Sydel, of retailer Sydel & Sydel here in Chicago. We traded notes about indies we saw. Jonathan carries brands from Grönefeld, Gruebel Forsey, and Voutilainen all the way to Oris and Unimatic—he’s got a good eye for what’s exciting and what works. We talked about the parade of time-only, highly finished indies we saw, a conversation I must’ve had 4-5 times last week.

The formula may be well-worn by now, but the market's interest hasn't faded. Most watchmakers in this mold have sold out, with retailers lining up for special editions.

There’s nothing wrong with the formula itself. There will always be room for another watch with flowing stripes and finely executed anglage (at the right price). But fine finishing without any real expression behind it can feel as cold, clinical, and calculated as the collectors-cum-investors who seem to be as interested in supporting the next Rexhepi or Journe and the associated windfall as they are in the watchmaking itself.

I said before Watches and Wonders that most of these watches aren’t really for us anyway, and that’s fine—they’re exhibits as much as actual products. But if you haven’t found something to get excited about over the past week, then I don’t know what to say. Design, history, mechanics, craft—it’s all there.

Nerd out on the TAG Heuer Evergraph, flip through Patek Philippe’s rare handcrafts, or check out the Armin Strom 12:59 Minute Repeater. I’m not about to buy a $30k TAG Heuer chronograph, much less a $500k repeater, but they’re fascinating.

It’s fun to be in Geneva during Watches and Wonders or observe from afar, to suspend reality, if only for a few days, and forget about wars and ceasefires, and instead argue about a beloved brand’s relaunch or 100th anniversary celebration.

If my barista is excited enough to take a picture of the Chronometre Artisans in his shop, then we should all have plenty to be excited about, too.

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A few more notes from Geneva:

• I hate the word “novelties.” It’s just not a normal word, and I don’t know why we use stilted language to describe new watches or releases.

• LTM. I heard the name Le Temps Manufacture a lot last week. The Fleurier-based manufacturer is making the three-quarter “microrotor” movements for the Universal Geneve Polerouter (while the chronograph uses Breitling components). On Friday, another small brand that has thus far relied on Sellita told me it’s working on a project with LTM. LTM’s website also counts the Berneron Mirage 34, Ressence, Fiona Kruger, and others as clients.

Below the paywall: 5 favorites from Geneva, a slept-on release in gold, the indie that finally delivered a watch, Wei Koh’s new brand, and the biggest miss of the week.

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Good morning. I’m back in Chicago, fighting off jet lag. I’ll have a few more thoughts on Watches and Wonders next week, but thought I’d open it up for our first Q&A of 2026 for this Sunday:

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Ask a question, and I’ll answer throughout the day. As always, I’ll save a few of the most interesting inquiries for a future newsletter.

Ask about anything you’d like about new releases, Watches and Wonders, or Geneva. I met with ~30 brands this week across W&W, Time to Watches (eeek), Chronopolis, and elsewhere in Geneva. I also had casual coffees/beers/chats with another handful, along with auction previews at Sotheby’s and Monaco Legend.

Below, a photo dump and more quick thoughts on some of the many, many watches I saw in Geneva (without rehashing everything I covered on Wednesday):

• Also check out the YouTube video for more on Rolex, Tudor, Cartier, and other favorites.

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Leave a comment or question:

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Best in Show

• Last week, I wrote that some of the watches announced will be “exhibit” pieces, meant to be showed off but ultimately purchased by very few clients. My favorite releases are typically the great watches I can see myself buying, wearing, and enjoying. Unpolished isn’t really the newsletter to wax poetic about a $500k triple-axis gyrotroubillon with mahogany obsidian dial, though we certainly appreciate (some) of those too.

• That’s why, if you cornered me at Watches & Wonders and made me buy one modern watch, released this year or any year, it’d be the new Chopard L.U.C 1860 “Areuse Blue” in steel. It’s the one press release I received before the show and forwarded to GQ saying I gotta write this one for you guys (here’s that intro). It’s just a dial update, but it’s gorgeous. I liked the salmon a few years ago, but this feels more contemporary and fresh. The original blue dials from the 1990s are incredibly rare, and a shade or too away from the Areuse Blue, so it’s an easy win.

• Hamsterdam on Prices: It’s $29,500, an aggressive ~25% increase compared to the salmon’s intro price (but ultimately reasonable in my opinion), of $23,200 in 2023. To earnestly discuss all of these releases, we almost have to suspend the consideration of price, which in many cases are at best “punchy,” and at worst, crazy. This newsletter edition will mention prices but mostly reserve discussion of whether or not they’re reasonable for another day—kind of like Hamsterdam in The Wire, when the Baltimore mayor designates isolated areas as “free zones” where drug dealing is allowed without police action.

• The watches I have been asked about the most by friends, subscribers, and collectors, in no particular order: Lange Saxonia Annual Calendar, Cartier Santos “Ghost,” the all-gold Rolex Oyster Perpetuals, Tudor Monarch, Jaeger-LeCoultre Master Control Chronometre, the H Moser x Reebok Streamliner “Pump.” Capsule thoughts on all below.

I also did a first pass at these takes for YouTube, rushing back to my hotel after my first day of appointments. Here it is:

Thanks for the feedback on video so far—it’s low fi and we have bigger ambitions, but that’s also how all of the YouTubers I respect most started their channels.

If you’re overwhelmed by the deluge of new watches and content, last weekend’s podcast with Screwdown Crown is a palate cleanser:

Find the full Unpolished archive online.

Cartier

• It’s the 10-year anniversary of the Privé collection. I wondered earlier this year if there might be an expiration on the heritage-focused collection, especially given the original CPCP lasted 10 years (1998-2008). There are no new Prive shapes this year. Instead Cartier is doing a “greatest hits” with two trios:

  • Platinum: Skeleton Crash, Tank Normale, and Tortue Monopusher

  • Yellow gold: Tank Normale, Tank Cintree, and Cloche

• Only the Crash is a limited edition. I would’ve liked to see Cartier bring back another shape in a small run. The day before Watches & Wonders, I previewed Sotheby’s upcoming Cartier-heavy sale. That catalog is a reminder that Cartier has dozens of shapes it could bring back. Much of the 1970s Louis Cartier collection hasn’t been revisited—I’d love to see a refreshed Ceinture or Cristallor.

• That said, all of the new Privé watches are well executed. The platinum Tank Normale is the most noticeable upgrade—the 2023 version was monochromatic and lacked pop.

• The Santos-Dumont bracelet is beautifully made. Very flexible, almost like a Milanese bracelet. That said, I prefer the look of the 80s-90s “grains of rice” bracelets. The links are more rounded and give it a softer, more elegant vibe. Also, it works nicely on the Santos-Dumont, but I’d love to see how a Tank Louis looks on a bracelet like this.

• People are excited about the slate Santos “Ghost.” The 80s Ghost and Burgundy Santos have gotten popular, so it’s Cartier obviously paying attention to enthusiasts, which they do as well as any brand. We didn’t get much info, but Cartier said both a Ghost and Burgundy are coming this fall. The Ghost is the medium automatic Santos, while the Burgundy is small and quartz. I wrote down a price of $11k (please don’t quote me). The new Ghost is closer to a true matte dial, compared to the brushed finish of the originals. It doesn’t have quite the same metal-on-metal feel of the 80s Santos, but it’s cool.

Tudor

• I’m glad to see Tudor take a swing with the Monarch. And I like the watch. As long as I’ve been doing this, it’s been Black Bays and Pelagos. The angular case is 39mm, but wears relatively compact and thin. It’s angular, and unlike most modern Tudors, isn’t slab-sided, so you don’t perceive all 11.9mm of thickness. The error-proof style dial has a rich golden-copper hue. I’m glad it’s not salmon, which has become a bit passé. I don’t think we need a display-back Tudor.1 Out of habit, the first thing I do when I pick up a watch is wind it. The first thing I noticed when I picked up the Monarch is also my biggest buagaboo:

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• How Rolex signed its first modern sports ambassador

• The simple charm of the mid-century golfer’s watch

• The scramble to get a Rolex on the wrist of one Masters winner before the green jacket went on

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Before we get to the golf—

• Watches & Wonders starts Tuesday. I'll be posting appointment videos on Instagram (Tudor and Cartier), along with a Day 1 newsletter and YouTube video by Wednesday. I’ll also open the chat for paid subscribers on Day 1 (link below).

• 🎧 New Podcast: The Psychology of Watch Collecting. One reason I find watch collecting so fascinating is that it puts on display the entire breadth of human psychology: Why we want the things we want, and how to enjoy what we already have. This week’s podcast guest is Kingflum, who writes the newsletter Screwdown Crown. He’s known just as much for his diversions on psychology as he is for calling out the BS he sees in the watch industry. Listen below or wherever you get pods: Spotify / Apple / RSS:

How Arnold Palmer and Rolex created the modern sports ambassador

When the Masters winner slips on his green jacket on Sunday, no doubt we’ll catch a glimmer of the watch on his wrist.

That all started with a handshake in 1960, when Cleveland lawyer Mark McCormack convinced Arnold Palmer to become his client. McCormack was a talented golfer in his own right—the two had played against each other in college—and by then Palmer had already won two majors.

But McCormack saw Palmer as more than a golfer. Palmer had already become a popular athlete, assembling “Arnie’s Army,” his growing popularity lining up with the advent of television.

Before their handshake, Palmer had two endorsement deals: $500 for Heinz Ketchup (along with free ketchup) and Wilson Sporting Goods, which required him to return his clubs if he stopped playing golf.

McCormack and Palmer probably couldn’t have imagined that 50 years later, there’d be tall iced teas with his name in 7-Eleven stores across the world. But the endorsements came quickly: United Airlines, Pennzoil, Hertz.

The big one came in 1967: Rolex. Palmer became Rolex’s first “Testimonee,” a made-up word for its roster of ambassadors.

Before McCormack and Palmer, sports endorsements were merely functional, like Arnie’s deal with Wilson. These are the tools I use to compete at the highest level, you should try them too. Just a decade prior, the world’s best golfer, Ben Hogan, had collaborated with Timex on a line of accessible watches.

After Palmer, athletes became aspirational.

Timex was “takes a licking, keeps on ticking.” Rolex was for “men who guide the destinies of the world.”

Rolex didn't just sponsor golf; it became golf. Today, it sponsors every professional major; it added Jack Nicklaus and Gary Player to its roster of Testimonees; hell, it sponsors the junior golf rankings. The Rolex golf clocks!

By 1990, McCormack was named the “Most Powerful Man in Sports.” He founded the massive agency IMG and represented Tiger Woods, Serena Williams, Wayne Gretzky, and even Pope John Paul II.

Every modern sports star follows the playbook written by McCormack and Palmer of the athlete as brand. It’s Michael Jordan’s Jumpan logo, Lebron’s signature shoe, or Roger Federer “leaking” the new Land-Dweller. 1

Sometimes, the line between athlete and advertisement gets so blurry that we don't even notice it.

McCormack and Palmer also gave Rolex a head start. When the quartz/currency crisis came for the entire Swiss industry in the 70s, Rolex was already transitioning from talking about the features of its watches (robust, waterproof, accurate) to the lifestyle of those who wear its watches.

Andre Heiniger, president of Rolex from 1962 until 1997, oversaw its growth from a maker of tools into a world-famous brand.

As recounted in one obituary, a friend once asked him, “How’s the watch business?” to which Heiniger replied, “I have no idea.” His friend laughed, but Heiniger wasn’t trying to be funny. “Rolex is not in the watch business. We are in the luxury business.”

Palmer and McCormack sparked that pivot.

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Collecting the mid-century golfer’s watch

That pivot is everywhere now. Golf is bigger and more accessible than ever, and so is watch collecting—both worth celebrating. But bigger hasn’t always meant better. The mid-century golfer’s watch didn’t have GPS, shock resistance, or a heart rate monitor—they just told time, which was more than enough.

Today, watchmakers often come up with shock-proof solutions more fit for a Best Buy than a watch boutique, but there was a more elegant solution in the mid-20th century:

The golfer’s watch.

A simple, back-to-the-future solution. Instead of strapping on a wristwatch, you put it in your pocket. These golfers’ watches were made to hang from the belt, often dangling from ornate chains with a crown at 12 o’clock.

As far back as the 1930s, Hermès, Cartier, and even Abercrombie & Fitch had made watches built into belt buckles, hinged to flip open so a golfer could check the time on the course.

These weren’t sports watches in the modern sense, but dress watches for a sport played in polos and pressed trousers. The category peaked in the 1950s and 60s, with golf booming globally and brands competing for a slice of the scorecard.

Whether you were playing at a country club or a muni, there was a golfer’s watch for you:

• Gilbert Albert's Montres Golf. The best of the bunch came from Patek Philippe, designed by Gilbert Albert during his tenure as head of its creative workshop. The Golf watches—refs. 782, 783, and 799—were launched in 1959. Made in gold with integrated chains and clips, and delivered in leather pouches. The segmented dials are unmistakably from Albert's pen, also seen in his wristwatches for Universal Genève and Patek Philippe. These golf watches come up for sale occasionally and are relatively affordable compared to his other designs.

• Seiko Golf. In Japan, golf exploded after the war. The U.S. military had taken control of numerous golf courses during the war, and when they were handed back in the 1950s, enthusiasm for the sport spiked. That’s when Seiko began making golf-themed watches for the pocket and wrist, featuring dimpled, golf-ball-textured dials and cases. The wristwatch even has a bit of a Patek Philippe 565 vibe. While they’re kinda hard to find in the States, they’re not super expensive—maybe starting at $700-$800 for the pocket watch.

• That’s not all. The Patek Philippe and Seiko are some of my favorites, but there are others: Eterna made a golfer’s watch, so did Omega. And that’s before we even get to later score counters like the Cartier Pasha Golf.

Play it as it lies

Soon enough, shock-proof technology became good enough to handle a golf swing (whether it’s recommended is another matter). Phil Mickelson has won a couple of majors wearing his 90s Rolex Cellini.

I’ve talked before about playing a different game—finding corners of collecting that nobody else is paying attention to. For me, golfer’s watches are one corner.

There’s fun to be had from $100 to $10k: A Patek Philippe by Gilbert Albert reaching the top end, but that rope-style chain matching the bezel is peak Patek Philippe. Meanwhile, a Seiko Cronos golf or Eterna Golfer can be found on eBay for a few hundred bucks if you’re patient.

There are also all kinds of random stories to uncover because of the connection between golf and watches: The Heuer Carreras made for Arcola Country Club in New Jersey, not to mention Jack Nicklaus’ Day-Date selling for a million bucks.

Some watch brands still make golf watches today, though I’m not sure why. They promise GPS, hole layouts, exact yardages—everything except the one thing the mid-century golfer's watch had: elegance.

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The scramble to get a Rolex on Scottie Scheffler's wrist after his first Masters win

In a move that proved prescient, Rolex signed Scottie Scheffler as a Testimonee the Sunday before his first Masters win in 2022.

The biggest part of a watch deal is getting a watch on their wrist before they hoist the trophy. It’s the money shot. This proved a challenge after Scottie’s first Masters win. He’s got big hands, and while he had a watch in his bag ready for the moment, it wouldn’t fit on his wrist.

As Chad Mumm, producer of Netflix’s Full Swing tells it in his podcast, this had people frantically looking for a Rolex for Scottie before the trophy ceremony. Mumm doesn’t name names, but when you put together that Scottie had signed just days before his win, it’s reasonable to believe it’s him (and look how tight that GMT-Master II is).

They found a member of Augusta National to borrow a watch from. Somewhere, there’s a guy out there whose GMT-Master II now has the distinction of being worn by Scottie Scheffler when slipping on the green jacket for his first Masters— and we’ll never know about it.

Rolex has spent the last 60 years perfecting the art of the ambassador, but the best stories can never be planned.

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Get in touch:

• tony[at]unpolishedwatches.com

• My favorite, leave a comment or like this post

• Keep an eye on the chat for Watches & Wonders

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One of the reasons I find watch collecting so fascinating is that it puts on full display the entire breadth of human psychology: Why we want the things we want, and how to be happy with what we already have.

Today’s guest is , who writes the newsletter Screwdown Crown. He’s known just as much for his diversions on psychology as he is for calling out the BS he sees in the watch industry.

We discuss how to appreciate watches without having the sometimes unhealthy desire to own every single one; the two systems always at work in our brains; how Instagram has changed watchmaking; enjoying his titanium Rolex Yacht-Master and Romain Gauthier C6; why your taste is not as personal as you think; the McMansion effect and the power of mimetic desire; the difference between a community and a cult, and which are FP Journe owners? On the eve of Watches & Wonders, we also talk about the industry: Is the slowdown cyclical or existential; the rise of Chinese manufacturing; the death of the middle market. We close with a few minutes on the current state of watch media: How brands are (or aren’t) interacting with independent newsletters, handling criticism, and is now the most exciting time to be an enthusiast?

Subscribe to Unpolished here.

Subscribe to Screwdown Crown here.

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• Thinking, Fast and Slow

• Alchemy: The Dark Art of Creating Magic

• Wanting: The Power of Mimetic Desire

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A few thoughts on the Universal Genève releases:

• They don’t seem too thick, which is the biggest plague on modern watches (12.5mm for the Compax, 9.5mm for the Polerouter).1

• Compax dimensions seem wearable (39.5 x 12.5mm). Daytona-like, which pretty much every other brand fails on. A solid mass-market chronograph.

• Not offering the “Nina” on a bracelet is a miss—leaning a bit too hard into the Nina-Wore-It-On-A-Bund thing (see also Watches Are Too Literal). In reality, the list of people who can pull off a bund strap is: (1) Nina Rindt, (2) Paul Newman.

• Compax price isn’t bad (Chf 17k on bracelet), but the Polerouter doesn’t make sense next to it (starting at Chf 14k).

• I wish they had the Polerouter Date in 37mm—one of the few watches that’s better with a date window.

• The three-quarter rotor calibers look nice enough, and distinguished from Breitling. Prices are approaching Chopard, but L.U.C watches have Geneva Seal and better finishing. I haven’t seen any external certifications or accuracy guarantees for these new UG calibers (did I miss?).

• Can any brand resist stone dials?

• Except for these short clips from Watch Advisor, I’ve only seen renders. I assume we’ll see the real stuff in Geneva next week. I know others have seen the collection, dating back to Dubai Watch Week, but heard UG was strict about taking photos. I would’ve figured out a way to make sure some media had live photos for launch day.

• I think about this quote from tech reviewer MKBHD a lot:

  “Most products are mid, which means they don’t get a review. If something is really good, that’s interesting. If something is really, really bad, that can also be interesting.”

• Based on renders, that’s basically how I feel about these—mid. But computer renders rarely make me feel anything. Still, I’m looking forward to seeing them.

That transitions us to today’s main event—

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A (usually) unspoken word before Watches & Wonders.

I think about this watch way too often:

In 2023, Hermès introduced an H08 Monopusher Chronograph at Watches & Wonders. It was kind of interesting, and the H08 is a good-enough sports watch, even if it is just Birkin bait for most Hermès clients.

I even wrote a hands-on for the Mothership. But here’s what we didn’t mention at the time:

That sample had a blocked caliber—that is, a non-functional, dummy movement.

So perhaps it shouldn’t have been surprising when two years later, I still hadn’t seen or heard anything more about that monopusher. Look around the internet, and you’ll see there’s nothing after that initial release.

Last June, I reached out to Hermès about the H08 Monopusher. Relax Tony, I was told, it’s coming out later this year. And in October, Hermès did release an H08 Monopusher, but it wasn’t quite like that first one: It’s yellow and has a larger 45mm case (not 41mm). [4/9 update: It’s now offered in orange, but that watch is also 45mm.]

I’ve seen a few of these yellow Monopushers hit the secondary, and it’s also listed on Hermès’ website ($13,300), so I guess it’s real this time.

Showing watches with dummy movements is somewhat common, especially at a trade show (that Polerouter above seems to have one). The first time I saw a Berneron Mirage, it had a paper movement, printed to look like the caliber. Some of the Cartier Tank a Guichet samples last year weren’t gold.2 Et cetera.

It’s fair enough: Why let all these media members get their grubby hands on a shiny new watch to make a Reel for their 2,000 followers? Still, it’s not ideal, even if a dummy watch can give the reviewer some sense of fit and finish.3

Exhibit of the Moment

I use this anecdote as a reminder: Watches & Wonders is a trade show. Brands have “exhibits.” It’s a chance for the watch industry to put its best foot forward. The most complications, the shiniest diamonds, the stoniest stone dials.

But so many of the watches we’ll see covered next week are just that: exhibits.

They aren’t made for you or me or really anyone. Extremely limited or complicated—which is to say expensive—more statements about what a brand can do than what it spends most of its time actually doing. A few, like that Hermès chronograph, might not even reach production. (Often, I get most excited about the ones that are for us, say last year’s Nomos Worldtimer or Lange 1815.)

This will be my fourth Watches & Wonders, and it feels like it’s drifting further away from the world we actually live in. Perhaps that’s more of a commentary about the world we live in than on the Watches and the Wonders. Luxury is meant to be an escape; still, there’s no escaping the fact that every discussion begins and ends with, as calls it, the “Unpleasant Matter of the Bill.”

Last year, I mentioned that I have complicated feelings about Watches & Wonders. Some of this come from seeing the show more like a shopping mall than a trade show. From thinking more in dollars and cents than gears and springs.

I’ve found it helpful to remember that these are often exhibits as much as they are products. Whether that’s a million-dollar perpetual calendar minute repeater, an impressive new flyback chronograph, or even just an Hermès Monopusher.

Then, the high prices, the fact that I can’t have it all, or really any of it, hurts a little bit less.

On Exhibit

At Watches & Wonders, brands try to dictate the narrative. They send us press releases about watches, shoehorn them into their heritage, explain why they matter.

But all they can do is try. We’re the ones who get to decide what sticks.

Collectors kept Universal Genève alive for all those years. Georges Kern, Partners Group, and their advisory board can go on all they want about Le Couturier de la Montre, but it’s up to us to call bullsh*t if UG, or any brand, is more marketing than substance.

It’s one reason I come back to the old stuff. Once all the Instagram posts are buried and the ad budgets are spent, the watches are what’s left. We’ve had time to sit with it, to see what lasts. Watches & Wonders is the beginning of that process, not the end.

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UNPOLISHED STORE

These are my favorite leather straps, which is why I sell them in the Unpolished Store. They’re sewn and made right here in the U.S. from a French calfskin. The matte finish sits right between dressy and distressed—I wear them on a Lange, I wear them on a Black Bay 58.

They’re the best leather straps you can find—and they’re 100 bucks. Shop the Unpolished Matte Calfskin Strap in the Unpolished Store:

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A few more links to get you prepared for Watches & Wonders

The Unpolished Guide to Geneva

Arrive in Geneva by train, and you’ll breeze past half a dozen HORLOGERIE shops as you walk down the hill towards Lake Geneva, all trying to sell you a Tissot, Mondaine, or a brand called Jacques du Manoir. One has Victorinox Swiss Army knives in the window, and cheap cuckoo clocks hung on a pegboard in the back.

Arrive by plane, and you’ll be smacked with glowing Richard Mille or Patek Philippe Twenty~4 ads. It’s where I finally caved and bought my first Airport Swatch—the MoonSwatch 1965—exactly 1,106 days after the original release.

Geneva is the epicenter of Swiss watchmaking. In the fairy-tale version, watchmakers spent winters working in mountain workshops before descending to Geneva each spring to show what they’d made.

And watches are everywhere. Public trolleybuses remind you that Tudor is “Born to Dare.” Rexhep Rexhepi has an impressive presence in the city’s historic Old Town. Geneva has experiences you can’t find anywhere else, which is what I’ve aimed to highlight in this Unpolished Guide to Geneva:

Full of practical recommendations like:

• “Don’t get fondue on your first night in Geneva. If you’re coming from the States, you’ll already be jet-lagged, and you don’t need to add fondue-lag. Also, don’t drink cold water with fondue, it’ll make the cheese congeal in your stomach like a rock.”

• “I once peed in the urinal next to F.P. Journe at this bar at 1:42 a.m. I was leaving, he was arriving. During busy weeks, more watch execs here than there is leopard print.”

• I even made a map: 🇨🇭 Unpolished Guide to Geneva | Google Maps

WATCHES AND WONDERS 2025

Funny enough, I wrote in last year’s preview that “Thus far, I’ve avoided the airport MoonSwatch, but eventually it comes for us all—and I do like the new 1965.”

Perhaps it was fitting that I bought one on my way out of the Geneva Airport during one of my trips last year (above).

If you want to step into the wayback machine, here’s more from Watches & Wonders 2025:

THE ROUNDUP

He Got Rich Buying and Selling Luxury Watches. Was It a Ponzi Scheme? “You’ve paid that money? You’re crazy or what?” HYT co-founder Vincent Perriard, upon learning someone had paid $191,000 for an HYT worth ~$22,000. (NY Times)

Sotheby’s has an insane collection of Cartier watches this year. 300+ watches from one collector, they’ll be spread across New York, Hong Kong, and Geneva. It starts in Hong Kong this month. In addition to watches, there are all kinds of cool Cartier objects: photo frames, drum-shaped alarm clock, keyring tires, magnifying glass, bulldog clips, envelopes, clip watches, and more. It starts in this month’s Hong Kong sale.

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“Pelagos GMT”

In the traditional Pelagos blue, it’s clearly not the existing Pelagos FXD GMT. You can find Photoshop renders predicting a Pelagos GMT dating back to at least Tiger’s first DUI, but it seems like 2026 is finally the year its modern diver gets a GMT.

As for my Tudor predictions: Beyond a revamped Black Bay 58 in line with last year’s Burgundy, I’m hoping for an updated 1926 collection—

Tudor could use a real dress watch, and if it’s sub-39mm diameter, under 12mm thick, at a reasonable price, and still with METAS certification, it’ll easily have Omega beat.

In today’s letter: The Watchlist features a special Abercrombie & Fitch chronograph, a chronometer-grade Zenith, and intrigue about the real Titanic watch. But first—

You can always check out the entire Unpolished archive online.

First Look: Universal Genéve ‘Tribute to Compax’ Set

A few weeks ago, a subscriber reached out to show me a special set of watches he’d just picked up: One of the two Universal Genève “Tribute to Compax” sets.

It’s one of two unique sets sold as an appetizer to the brand’s full relaunch, coming April 8. Both feature a trio of Compaxes in the original 36mm size, use restored UG caliber 281s, and are delivered on leather bund straps made by a Japanese craftsman. Each set has different color grand feu enamel dials.

One of the biggest announcements over the next few weeks will be the rollout of Universal Genève’s new collection.1 After next week’s announcement, many in Geneva will see it all the evening before Watches & Wonders kicks off (I’ll be there).

I hadn’t seen any real photos of the Compax sets, so I asked this collector if he could send some to get us excited about UG’s official relaunch.

I think the panda Nina Rindt tribute looks best, but it’s also one of the greatest mid-century chronograph designs from any brand to my eye.2

I asked the collector why he acquired the set. He said:

“It came down to the overall package. The Nina Rindt is already an iconic piece, so I was naturally drawn to it, but what I liked here was how well everything came together: the design, history, and the way they executed it. Also, after I made contact and started communication, the UG brand team was amazing.

The archived movements used and restored reallyyyy jumped at me…I honestly thought ‘how cool those movements took time in the past’…but for me that was just one part of it. More than anything, it felt like a very complete and well-thought-out release.”

Thanks again to the collector for sharing—I’ll have more on UG’s relaunch over the next couple of weeks.

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The Watchlist

Unpolished’s monthly column featuring low- or no-reserve auctions—from eBay to small auctions—all under the radar, in hopes of finding a deal.

Before we spend a couple of weeks talking mostly about new watches, let’s look at a few old watches for sale right now:

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After five straight years at the Original Miami Beach Antique Show (OMBAS), some of the watches start to look familiar.

There’s this one Rolex Submariner/Explorer Franken-mashup I make a habit of checking in on every year. It’s always at the same exhibitor, with the same look of disregarded dejection, sitting on an island of misfit Rolexes. Yep, that’s the one:

I also saw the same Audemars Piguet “Sun-Ray” Tourbillon, Starwheel, Vacheron Constantin 4073, and many others. Some were at the same dealers, some at different booths.

It’s not like these are “burned” watches—a great watch is a great watch—but it makes me more excited when I see something genuinely new. Similar to a few years ago, a fresh-to-market Vacheron Constantin ref. 4072 chronograph in a “pink-on-pink” configuration stole the show for me, sourced beforehand and picked up by no other than GQ’s 2022 collector of the year, Rob (@bazamu):

I also see some of the same scenes. A 20-something dressed in streetwear with more logos than an F1 driver walks up to a booth with a green Rolex bag. “Are you buying?” he asks the exhibitor.

The response is usually a tepid yes, and the streetwear-clad hustler gently slides a Rolex green box out of a Rolex green bag and onto the glass case. Inside, a lowly two-tone Rolex Datejust 41.

His ask is about $800 too high, so the two go back and forth for a few seconds before it becomes clear there’s no deal to be had. Often, a few camera operators are filming it all, and it’s clear the flipper’s already got what he came for.

That’s because Miami is the influencer capital of these United States of TikTok, and not even the hallowed halls of the Miami Beach Antique Show are immune. On Friday evening, traffic snarled across the island as our nation’s Influencer-in-Chief gave a speech just 15 blocks away. Across Biscayne Bay, Ultra Music Festival filled the entire metropolitan area with EDM and MDMA as neon-clad concert-goers stumbled around town in a selfie-induced haze.

Some things are also different. In 2024, Alfredo Paramico displayed an impressive collection of neo-vintage watches—Blancpain, Ebel, Breguet, and others. But no Lange. Two years later, he’s got Lange. Lots of Langes. “I’ve sold 62 Langes this year,” he told me.

And these aren’t your simple 1815s or Saxonia Thins. It’s early or limited-edition Lange 1s; seven first-gen Datographs (ref. 403.035) sitting on the same clamshell together that’ll almost distract you from the Datograph Perpetual Tourbillons to the left. Special stuff.

Neo-vintage watches were everywhere. It’s as if 1980s-90s perpetual calendars are the new Submariner. I saw at least a dozen ultra-thin QPs from Audemars Piguet, Vacheron Constantin, Blancpain, and Patek Philippe.

Now the variety is skeletons and Tuscan dials instead of glossy or matte. One of the best was Watch Brothers London’s full-set skeleton Vacheron 43032 in platinum (ask: ~$140k).

Another AP QP featured a guilloche dial by Metalemn, the dialmaker that made dials for Philippe Dufour’s Simplicity and Chopard’s L.U.C 1860 (Chopard quietly acquired Metalem a few years ago). The owner (@watches_and_guinness) was eager to talk about his recent discovery of the supplier, showing how education on this era continues to grow.

Last year, I remember hanging out with a dealer who couldn’t move a Journe Chronometre Bleu for their client—they “needed” something like $75k. Just 12 months later, those same seventy-five thousand dollars might buy you half an Elegante and an empanada at OMBAS (the lunch of choice for most exhibitors). The cheapest CB on the market is $178k. I saw a few Journes on wrists, but not many in cases, though the Journe knives from his Geneva restaurant made an appearance (ask: $15k).

There were more dealers than last year, though probably fewer attendees. All the exhibitors said watches were moving. I saw a few deals, mostly between dealers, but the consensus is that list prices are high (but negotiable) at OMBAS.

On Saturday afternoon, I moderated a panel with Tania Edwards, Morgan Cardet, and Mike Nouveau. More than the answers, the questions from the audience are what I find interesting: Questions about how to value authenticity vs. originality, how Rolex’s certified pre-owned program is impacting the market, and more.

I was only in Miami for about 36 hours, and had dinners at Mignonette and Hiyakawa—I’d recommend both.

I took photos on a new-to-me Ricoh GR IIIx. It’s the first time I’ve used it for shooting on the go, so it took some getting used to. But I’ve never gotten so many questions about a camera—and I got to shoot at the Antique Show with a Leica Q2 “Ghost” a few years ago!

The Ricoh is an awesome travel camera that fits in my pocket, which makes it easy to carry everywhere. I’m simply able to snap photos more easily and more often than any other camera I’ve owned, making it well worth any small trade-off in image quality compared to my Nikon Zf.

Here are some scenes from Miami. No one is safe when they’re in the Influencer Capital, so I also posted a few videos on my Instagram.

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[This photo report is best viewed online—click the headline above to open in your browser.]

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Speaking of videos, the Unpolished YouTube just published our second video: 10 Incredibly Niche Watches I Love (in 2026). Check it out and subscribe on YouTube if you haven’t yet:

Thanks to everyone who reads the newsletter or listens to the podcast for saying hello this weekend. Let me know if you have any favorites in this photo report (or if you were there, any I missed).

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I spent last weekend in Houston, where I’m happy to confirm the two-tone Rolex-as-status-symbol is still very much a thing.

In today’s newsletter: Diving into the origins of the world timer at Louis Cottier’s Carouge workshop, why I’m pro pusher, and the modern taxonomy of travel watches. Plus, a shortlist of vintage world timers for the rest of us, what a $4.8m price drop says about how collecting tastes change, and how Tissot "hacked" the Cottier mechanism to build the first mass-produced navigator. We end with a game of “Spot the Difference.” Before we get to world timers—

• Cartier, Explained: I filmed a 45-minute video with Teddy Baldassarre’s team all about Cartier. You have to hand over your email to watch it, but hopefully it’s a solid intro to the brand if you’re new or newish to Cartier. The shooting and production from Teddy’s team are impressive—I won’t speak to the on-screen “talent.”

• Miami Beach Antique Show—panel and free tickets: I’ll be in Miami at the Miami Beach Antique Show this weekend, where I’m also moderating a panel with Tania Edwards (Collectability), Morgan Cardet (Matt Bain), and Mike Nouveau on Saturday at 3pm. Come say hey if you’re around. I also have a code for free tickets that I’ll leave in the comments of this post (not an ad, it’s just a fun show!).

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Let’s talk about the world timer.

A couple of big-time vintage world timers are coming to auction this spring. For the rest of us, Baltic is teasing a new world timer-style release on March 31. As I’m finishing this letter, independent watchmaker Andreas Strehler just announced his new Säntis World Time.

We often focus on Patek Philippe perpetual calendars and chronographs as the pinnacle of collecting, but some of its most drool-worthy creations (rarest, most beautiful, super expensive) are world timers.

In 1931, Geneva watchmaker Louis Cottier invented a simple but brilliant world-time mechanism that uses a rotating 24-hour ring to track the world’s time zones at a glance. Simply align your city to 12 o’clock and set your local time. The hands turn clockwise, while the 24-hour ring rotates counter-clockwise once per day, geared to track time zones across the world.

Even today, this rotating 24-hour ring is called a Cottier-style mechanism.

Cottier owned his patent and made world timers for Vacheron, Agassiz, and others, but his mechanism became most associated with Patek Philippe.1 From 1937 until his death in 1966, he delivered about 380 movements, mostly world timers, to Patek. He was also one of the few watchmakers whom Rolex founder Hans Wilsdorf trusted with his personal collection.

Cottier’s modular mechanism was delicate, so all these watches were hand-assembled at his Carouge workshop. He also made the hands, which explains their beautiful variety. His world timer production for Patek Philippe breaks down like this, some of the lowest production watches the brand ever made:

• Ref. 605 pocket watch: ~90

• Ref. 1415 wristwatch: ~115

• Ref. 2523 and 2523/1 wristwatch: ~40

After Cottier died, Patek didn’t make another world timer until 2000, when it introduced the ref. 5110, improving on the Cottier mechanism by adding a pusher at 10 o’clock to quickly set the time, 24-hour, and city rings.

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Anyone got the time in the Azores?

Not all “world timers” are the same.

I’ll admit: I find many multi-time zone watches kinda contrived. It’s not necessarily the act of wearing a GMT-Master II while you take a business-class flight from ORD to Sacramento to spend a couple of nights at the Fairfield Inn—of course, wear your watch for its intended purpose. But when I spot someone at the airport taking their watch off to set the time, it can feel like putting on an affectation, i.e.:

This is obviously a me problem. Lucky for me, in the late 50s, Cottier developed another dual-time mechanism for Patek Philippe: adding two pushers on the case to advance or retreat the hour hand instantly. It was introduced in the Patek Philippe ref. 2597 Heuere Sautante (jumping hour, or Cross Country in the U.S.). Importantly, this meant: (1) you didn’t have to disturb the seconds hand when hopping to a new time zone; (2) some guy who writes a newsletter wouldn’t take a creepy photo of you at the airport. Cottier modified only about 100 movements for Patek Philippe with his jumping hour module. Either a coincidence or borne of commercial expediency, it more or less replaced the world timer in the catalog.

I’m pro pusher: The best multi-time zone watches don’t need to be taken off your wrist to be set. Click a few buttons, and you’re done, without having to make a whole show out of it.

I know everyone wants crown-operated everything nowadays, but I love a good pusher. Who’s got time to take their watch off and fiddle with a crown? It’s why the Nomos Club Sport Worldtimer, Patek 5110 (and 2597), even the innovative Breguet Hora Mundi (if it didn’t have a face only a mother could love), are my favorite kind of travel watch.

Touchscreens have cruelly taken most of our beautiful, tactile buttons without asking. Our fidgety hands are left with nothing to push, and mechanical watches are the last objects that offer that real, tactile clack (if, for you, that satisfaction comes from the click of rotating a crown—great!)

Cottier’s original mechanism is a world timer in the truest sense, mechanically tracking time zones with its rotating 24-hour disc. But starting in the 50s, other watchmakers began making their own GMT or multi-time zone watches.

Rolex never made a world-time wristwatch, instead introducing the GMT-Master in 1954. The GMT-Master, Patek’s Heuere Sautante, and the dozens of similar watches seem to recognize that, as nice as it is to know the time in the Azores, most of us really only want to know the time in two or three locations. Or at least, that’s all our eyes can manage.

Since about 2018, tons of more affordable GMTs and travelers’ watches have hit the market, thanks in part to new movements from Miyota, Sellita, and ETA. There are a few main flavors:

• Independent 24-Hour Hand (“Caller” GMT): An additional 24-hour hand that can be set from the crown allows you to track a second time zone.

• Independent 12-Hour Hand (“Flyer” GMT): While there’s an additional 24-hour hand, the local hour hand is set with the crown. Convenient for flyers.

• The Dual Time That Looks Like a World Timer (the “Geographic”): These watches have a world-time ring, but it’s used as a reference to set the time. Think of the Nomos Club Sport or Lange Worldtimer. Unlike a true Cottier timer, the world-time ring isn’t geared to move on its own—the wearer rotates it via a pusher or crown to set a reference time. It’s somewhere between a dual-time and a worldtime—the Jaeger-LeCoultre Geographic might’ve been the first to use this setup in the 90s (?), so I think of it as the geographic style.

There are other variations on this theme. Farer and others have made clever tweaks to a caller GMT movement to display 24 time zones; others add a rotating world time bezel to a caller GMT as a reference (Baltic’s approach, from the looks of it).

Just as there’s no wrong way to travel, there’s no wrong way to “world time,” whether or not you can actually tell the time across the world at a glance.

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The Original Jet-Set Class

It’s not all Patek Philippe when it comes to vintage world timers. Here are a few favorite older takes on the complication:

• Tissot Navigator. The 1953 pioneer, invented by legendary watchmaker Oscar Walden—it brought the Cottier world-time layout to the "everyman" while maintaining a mid-century jet-age aesthetic. More on the Navigator below.

• Andersen Geneve World Timers. Feels like the indie watch world’s spiritual successor to Patek Philippe. Svend Andersen fell in love with the complication while at Patek, and once he broke out on his own, he made his first world timer, the Communication, in 1990. The Christopher Columbus from 1992 is a personal favorite—with one just selling for $20k at Phillips, I hope these aren’t passing me by.

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It’s a question I get often. We talk a lot about buying watches, but not as much about selling them. And a time comes in every enthusiast’s life when you have to sell a watch.

This how-to guide is a supplement to this week’s podcast with dealer Wes Wynne of Collector’s Corner NY on How to Sell a Watch. Listen below, or subscribe to the podcast to get future episodes in your feed: Spotify / Apple / RSS:

It’s similar to last month’s How to Collect the Vintage Rolex Daytona

We discuss the who, what, when, where, why, and how of selling, including:

• The players: From large dealers like 1916 Company or Analog Shift to niche dealers like Wes, along with platforms, marketplaces, and auctions.

• When to consider selling vs. consigning, and the margins for each, with a few real examples. When do you need a consignment agreement, and how to get rid of the “dogs” in your collection?

• What to ask a dealer, along with a few of our pet peeves and red flags.

• A rough Chrono24 Rule for thinking about what your watch is actually worth.

• Unpolished is the newsletter for watch collectors. To get all the good stuff behind the paywall today, join for $8/mo or $89/year:

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When is it time to sell a watch?

It starts with a decision…

There are the emotional answers: You don’t feel connected anymore, or you feel like your taste has evolved. Perhaps you consult Unpolished’s Rules for Collecting and realize you really didn’t want that Railmaster after all.

There are also the more practical answers: You aren’t wearing it anymore; it’s time to consolidate or trade up.

• When does the watch start owning you? Are you constantly worried about scratches, service bills, or wearing the watch in public?

A stab at an analytical answer, if you’re purely playing the market (which probably isn’t the most fun way to collect): When the market value far surpasses the personal enjoyment or utility you get from the watch.

• That’s when it might be time for some “profit taking,” or realizing any gains and putting the money towards something else.

• Never forget relative value and remember that, no matter how strong it seems, markets are cyclical.

  • Wes and I discussed how the neovintage Patek Philippe market is hot right now: If you zoom out, $100k might not be a great relative value for a white gold Patek 3940G perpetual calendar. If your cost basis is like half that, “it might be a good time to sell and buy something like a Zenith Daytona,” where prices have been softer.1

• A small trick I’ll use: I pretend I have to sell a watch for whatever reason. Does it hurt my heart, or am I basically okay with it? If I’m already thinking about other ways to spend the money, maybe it’s time to move on.

Of course, there are all the other considerations that come with building a collection: Enjoyment, redundancy, changes in life circumstances, etc.

How should you approach a dealer?

So you’ve decided to sell a watch…it’s time to find a dealer.

• “The dealer is interviewing you as much as you’re interviewing them,” Wes says. He added that a potential scammer approaches him at least once a week. You should have your guard up when approaching dealers, but they’ll have theirs up, too.

• Wes says to reach out by email first and then get on the phone. “It gets a deal done quicker.” No one wants to be texting back and forth for weeks.

• Trades can happen, but they often overcomplicate things.

• Don’t offer a watch that’s not actually for sale. Don’t go to a dealer just because you want to see what your watch is worth, or because you want an offer to leverage against another dealer.

• Don’t shop a watch around too much. “That can burn a watch.” There are all kinds of dealer WhatsApp groups, so once you fire off a few photos, assume they could be shared somewhere. The only thing dealers love more than selling watches is trading gossip—you can get a reputation fast. Of course, this is more important if it’s something rare or unique than for a run-of-the-mill 1016. Default to offering your watch to one dealer at a time.

Buy vs. consignment

A bird in the hand

If a dealer agrees to take your watch, they might offer to buy outright or consign it for you. They may also give you a choice—most dealers have a combination of owned and consigned inventory. Here’s how to think about both options as a seller:

• Consignment: Generally, the best way to maximize your take.

  • Many dealers have a standard 10% fee, with a sliding scale for higher-value watches. You can also agree on a minimum net—tell the dealer what you want to end up with in your pocket, and they list at whatever price they want.

  • Dealers (especially vintage) will offer a short inspection period. You’ll get paid out after it clears.

• Selling outright gets money into your account ASAP. If a dealer’s buying, expect a label and quick payment after delivery and inspection.

I asked Wes to give us an example of buy vs. consign, so we used a Patek Philippe 3796J, the Calatrava from the 80s-90s. Here are the numbers he gave when we recorded on February 1, assuming good condition:

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In early February, I went to Miami for a small vintage meetup. While there, I sat down with Wes Wynne of Collectors Corner NY to discuss a question we’re both asked often:

How do you sell a watch?

We discuss the who, what, when, where, why, and how of selling, including:

• The players: From large dealers like 1916 Company or Analog Shift to niche dealers like Wes, along with platforms, marketplaces, and auctions.

• When to consider selling vs. consigning, and the margins for each, with a few real examples. When do you need a consignment agreement, and how to get rid of the “dogs” in your collection?

• What to ask a dealer, along with a few of our pet peeves and red flags.

• A rough Chrono24 Rule for thinking about what your watch is actually worth.

I’ve published a companion guide on “How to Sell a Watch,” exclusive to paid subscribers, that goes into more detail on working with and navigating this complicated, confusing world. A useful, practical guide for paid subscribers.

Subscribe at: unpolishedwatches.com

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• 2 newsletters/week

• 10% off U.S.-made straps in the Unpolished Store

• $50 off any service from Watchcheck

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Instead, there’s an Uncanny Valley for watches after they’re discontinued. A period when they’re not new anymore, but not old enough to be vintage or collectible. They’re just used or pre-owned, doomed to wallow away in obscurity on Luxury Bazaar or TheRealReal.

Most commonly, the “uncanny valley” is the idea that as a human-like robot becomes more life-like, our reaction shifts from empathy to revulsion. As robots become more like us, but not quite close enough, they just get creepy. Something like this:

It’s not quite the same, but watch collecting has its own Uncanny Valley.

The typical lifecycle of a watch is something like this:

• Watch is released, it steadily grows in popularity as awarness spreads. Sometimes this reaches a fever pitch, which we call “hype.”

• Watch is discontinued, the hype dissipates, most of us move on to the next shiny whatever.

• Watch falls into the Uncanny Valley. The previous generation starts to feel obsolete.

  • Take the ceramic Daytona. When Rolex introduced the updated Daytona in 2023 (ref. 126500), the subdials and lack of outer bezel ring on the previous version (ref. 116500) suddenly felt off or kinda creepy.

  • The older iteration starts to trade for less than the current one. It’s technically inferior to the new Daytona, but spiritually inferior to the vintage one. After all, who wants some used Daytona from 2018?

• Watch is rediscovered. With the benefit of time, it’s understood as something different—like a 60s Daytona. They rise out of the Uncanny Valley and sit atop an even higher peak.

Here’s the entire Daytona lineage, mapped onto this lifecycle of collectibility:

The Uncanny Valley is so interesting because it’s where the opportunity lies.

When people ask, “What’s the next big thing?,” they’re often asking about the watches languishing in the valley.

Some rise out of it. They shed their “used” label and reemerge on the other side as vintage, collectible, classics. Over the past few years, we’ve seen it happen with some watches from the 80s and 90s, notably the Patek Philippe 3940, 3970, or early Brass-era Journe.

These used to be just old Pateks or Journes, stuck in the middle. But with the benefit of time, they’re seen as foundational to the modern era.

Just last week, a Patek Philippe 3940 Beyer First Series sold for $1m. Ten years ago, that was a $50k watch; even three years ago, it was $300k.

Then, the 3940 began its rapid rise out of the Uncanny Valley. It went from being a pre-owned Patek (gross!) to a Modern Classic That Defines the Philippe Stern Era, Perhaps the Last in a Lineage of Classic Perpetual Calendars. Oh, and Did You Know Philippe Stern Himself Wore a 3940?

Why do certain watches rise out of the Uncanny Valley, while others remain stuck?

With some watches, it’s inevitable—the Rolex Daytona or a complicated Patek Philippe is a pretty sure bet. Still, it can take a generation, sometimes more, for enthusiasts to figure out which watches from a previous era actually matter. It’s like a filter. All the out-of-production watches get poured into the top of the filter, but only some come out the other side.

It reminds me of music, where most of the value is in the back catalog. It’s not that music was better 20 or 40 years ago; it’s just that we only remember the good stuff and forget about the rest. I love listening to old Lil Wayne, but forget about all those crappy DatPiff mixtapes he dropped every other week in the 2000s.

Zooming out beyond Lil Wayne or the Daytona, here’s how I think about the Uncanny Valley of Collectibility:

Besides those fancy Patek Philippes, other watches are in the rediscovery phase: ultra-thin QPs from Vacheron and Audemars Piguet; the original Breguet Tourbillon (ref. 3350). Indies are a different category, but early Roth or Dubuis, alongside Journe.

We’ve also seen watches bubble up but fail to reach escape velocity: Ebel, Franck Muller, Blancpain.

Why do some of these watches rise out of the valley while others remain stuck?

I think about a few factors:

[Below: five factors for thinking about how watches can escape the Uncanny Valley, along with a few that might be next to rise out of it.]

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• Watch Pages has the noble, if quixotic, goal of tracking every new release. It lists 139 new watches so far in 2026. We won’t see major releases until Watches & Wonders, so I’d like to declare the Daniel Roth Skeleton as my Q1 “best new watch.”

• A visit to Laurent Jolliet, Geneva’s old-school chain and bracelet maker.

• A lovely documentary on Swiss food & culture: Dirt Switzerland.

• Shop the Unpolished Store. We’ve got the best Canvas Strap: Thin, flexible, and without the padding that ruins other canvas straps. The Matte Calfskin Strap is 100 bucks and looks great on a Calatrava or a vintage Sub. Both made in the U.S. Shop Now.

Check out the entire archive online. Paid subscribers also get 10% off our U.S.-made straps in the Unpolished Store, a $50 credit for any Watchcheck service, along with 2 emails/week and access to all comments & Q&As.

1-on-1: Patek Philippe vs. A. Lange & Söhne

When these watches were introduced in the 1990s:

• The Patek Philippe Calatrava ref. 5000 was an old watch trying to be new.

• The A. Lange & Sohne 1815 Up/Down was a new watch trying to be old.

It was a time when watchmaking itself was also trying to decide if it wanted to be one, the other, or both—a question still left mostly unresolved.

Thirty years on, both the ref. 5000 and the 1815 are old, or at least, neo-vintage. I also think they’re two of the most compelling dress watches you can find at their price.

Why these two? Similar in purpose, but very different. Next to the Chopard L.U.C 1860, they’re two of the most interesting time-only, commercial dress watches from the 90s. They’re not either brand’s simplest watches, and the flourishes they chose say something about each’s approach to watchmaking.

Today, you can get ‘em for a similar price—call it $23-26k depending on condition, accessories, and how imminent World War III feels on that particular day. I find them more interesting than any modern dress watch at the price (Can you even find a gold dress watch for $25k in 2026?)

They’re not the most collectible or complicated. Collector’s guides will focus on the Datograph or 3970, but these are the (relatively) accessible watches that more of us can aspire to own.

Quintessential dress watches. Let’s start with Patek Philippe.

Patek Philippe ref. 5000

Patek Philippe introduced the 5000 in 1992. It’s best known as the result of a collaboration explored by Ferrari and Patek Philippe that never came to be.1 The utilitarian design looks like the gauges on old Italian sports cars.

The white-gold 5000G started as a limited run of 1,000 but proved so popular that another 900 in yellow gold came soon after. Patek made additional runs throughout the 90s in rose, white, and yellow gold.2

Last year, I wrote about neo-vintage Calatravas for Collectability. Tania Edwards, who worked at Patek Philippe in the 90s, said:

“I remember the ref. 5000 so distinctly. Everyone thought it was so cool—the off-center seconds, black dial, it was very modern for Patek Philippe.”

While the 80s had brought updates to the classics: the perpetual calendar (3940), perpetual calendar chronograph (3970), and Calatrava (3796), the 5000 was fresh and modern.

And it was a hit. It became a key step in modernizing the Calatrava, leading to offspring like the 6000, 6006, and 6007.

The dial has a high-contrast, modern vibe:

• Deep, glossy black lacquer that reflects light—perhaps the most difficult dial I’ve photographed. Some develop a slight bubbling.

• Stark white pad-printed numerals, railway and seconds tracks. The printing is thick and slightly raised, like the lume on an old Sub; matching white “matchstick” hands.

• Simple, instrumental typography inspired by old car gauges—the condensed, elongated numerals just work.

• Off-center seconds, which brings us to the movement:

The caliber 240PS (petite seconds): an ultra-thin micro-rotor with the Geneva Seal. The base 240 was used in the 80s, but this is the first time we see it with its off-center seconds. Through the exhibition caseback, you can see the 22kt-gold micro-rotor takes up half the movement, dictating the placement of the gear train. Rather than add some gears to move the seconds to 6 o’clock, which would’ve made it thicker, Patek went with it.

• We’ll compare the cal. 240 to the Lange below, with a little help from Walt Odets.

The case: Two-piece, entirely polished gold:

• (1) Lugs, midcase, and bezel, and (2) the screw-down caseback.

• 33mm but wears larger thanks to long, straight lugs—42mm lug-to-lug.

Before the 5000, the Calatrava was your grandfather’s watch: Usually yellow gold, silver dial, manual wind, hobnail (the horror!), snap-back case. The 5000 changed all that. By some definitions, it’s hardly even a Calatrava. This comes through in how it wears.

You’d be forgiven for not realizing that, in name, it’s a dress watch. The jet-black dial reminds me more of 90s Rolex dials than the staid opaline of most Patek Philippe dials.

It’s not perfect: As Patek Philippe’s first real effort to make a modern Calatrava:

• Those matchstick hands look unfinished and plain.

• The caliber 240 has uni-directional winding and a relatively modest two-day power reserve. Both decisions were made to keep the movement compact—which I agree with—but worth noting.3

The biggest criticism would be that the 5000 was doomed as a concept. It’s a sporty-dress hybrid, and by trying to be both, it accomplishes neither, unable to decide between technical brilliance or aesthetic harmony.

Collecting the 5000G

• Those first 1,000 ref. 5000Gs are believed to have movement numbers 800,xxx.

  • The “first series” deserves a slight premium. But confirm the production date with an Extract (e.g., the one here has movement number 800,xxx, and dates to 1993).

  • Later examples are 1.9m

• Some say total production across metals was capped at 5,000 units.

• The other metals are fine, but if you’re gonna get one, get a G.

• Most neo-vintage Calatravas are ~85% there for me, but the 5000 is as good as it gets.

  • To wit: the 3796 and 3923 are too small, the 5026 tries too hard, the lugs on the 3960 are atrocious. I do like the 5022.

• Fun fact: Malcolm Gillan has pointed out the 5000 uses the large hallmarks also seen on 3970s from the early 90s, much-loved by collectors.

BATTLE OF THE CASES

Let’s transition to the Lange 1815 Up/Down by comparing specs:

Lange 1815 Up/Down (ref. 221.021)

A. Lange & Söhne introduced the 1815 Up/Down in 1997 as the first expansion of the 1815 collection. It’s a no-nonsense, manual-wind watch, inspired by pocket watches made by Lange and then other Glashütte watchmakers in the 1800s. If you stroll through the shops of Glashütte or Dresden, you’ll see how common the “up/down” style is in Germany.

The case: The 1815 Up/Down is 35.8mm and noticeably better than the Patek:

• Three-piece case: Polished bezel, brushed midcase, and caseback.

• Notched lugs welded to the midcase.

• Personal preference: I like the presence of a larger diameter and shorter lugs.

Inside is the caliber L942.1:

• 45-hour power reserve, hacking seconds, 3 Hz.

• Larger nickel (German) silver 3/4 plate—below, you can see how it’s aged to a warmer hue than the rhodium-plated Patek Philippe.

• It’s the same movement as in its contemporary time-only 1815, adding a few additional gears for the power reserve indicator, but not much in thickness.

• The visible parts of the movement are elaborate: German silver, gold chatons, engraved balance cock, swan-neck regulator, and superior finishing. It may not make this a better movement than the cal. 240, but it’s certainly more elaborate, expensive, and expressive.

• We’ll get to its shortcomings in the comparison below.

The dial is very different from the 5000:

• Silver argenté dial

• Bold black, serif numerals that look more embossed than printed

While the ref. 5000 is designed to evoke vintage Ferrari speedometers, the 1815 Up/Down is more like an old printed, very official document.

Criticisms: The crown is too small; the dial is bordering on boring; low power reserve, especially for a manual winder; it’s the least Lange Lange—thin, symmetrical, and decidedly not the L1.

• This last point is what I like about the 1815, as most Langes are thicker than what I want from a dress watch, but if you want that Teutonic “Mercedes-door-closing” thunk, the 1815 isn’t for you.

Collecting the 1815 Up/Down

Lange made the yellow gold ref. 221.021 from 1997-2008, and the standard platinum and pink gold with silver dials for most of that time. Yellow seems more common, but not by a lot. A few notable variations:

• White gold with blue dial (ref. 221.027): Made from 1997-2001. Beautiful and rare—only a few come up a year, and expect at least a 1.5x premium to a standard U/D.

• Wellendorff bracelets: For 1-2 years at the start of production, Lange offered yellow gold and platinum with an integrated Wellendorff bracelet (refs. 251.021 and 251.025).

• Special edition: The only first-gen special edition is the Homage to Walter Lange, which measures 37.5mm and has some other special touches.

• Lange discontinued the original U/D in 2008, eventually bringing it back at 39mm. It doesn’t look as good, but the movement’s better.

• For more on collecting the 1815 Up/Down. Langpedia’s guide is a must.

Patek Philippe vs. Lange: A Debate Since 1994

Perhaps since Lange was reborn in 1994 or when it introduced the Datograph in 1999, Patek and Lange have been pitted head-to-head for their different approaches to fine watchmaking.

The 1815 Up/Down was lucky to have been reviewed by the great writer Walter Odets, who wrote:

“It would be difficult to argue with the assertion that the Lange 1815 Up/Down offers extraordinarily high quality materials, construction, and execution.

But he wasn’t all positive, adding that: “the adherence to tradition limits what this watch could have been.” He says Lange’s approach shows no new thinking and a significant amount of backpedaling, concluding:

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I grew up in Indiana, which oddly didn’t follow Daylight Saving Time until 2006. Nowadays, it feels like making DST permanent might be the one issue we could all get behind. The Senate unanimously passed the Sunshine Protection Act of 2021, but it’s been stuck since. That’s in part because politicians have a long memory: We tried permanent DST in 1974, and it went so badly it was repealed after just one winter (turns out no one wanted their kids waiting for a bus in pitch-black at 8:30 a.m.).

Meanwhile, no state can make DST permanent on its own because of the Uniform Time Act. One politician has even proposed half-daylight saving time, shifting clocks 30 minutes twice a year. Bold, but a cause that could probably find a backer from Adrda Labs, which recently introduced its GMT that cleverly keeps track of 30- and 45-minute zones.

More conventionally, there are a few watches that have a crown position allowing you to independently jump the hour hand by an hour without disturbing the minute or seconds. Surely these owners get excited about springing forward for Daylight Saving Time:

• The Ming 17.09, which has a modified Sellita SW330-2 GMT caliber

• The old quartz Omega Seamaster 300 “GoldenEye” (ref. 2541.80). If you’re looking for other Omegas with this movement, search for Omega “Time Zone Function.”

It’s basically a simplified flyer GMT without the extra hand—an underrated “complication,” in my opinion. If a bipartisan consensus on time seems unlikely, at least you can wear a watch that makes political indecision easier to track.

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WATCH CALENDAR 2026

I’ll be at the Original Miami Beach Antique Show, happening March 26-30. That Saturday, I’m moderating a panel at 3 p.m. with Tania Edwards (of Collectability), Mike Nouveau (of @mikenouveau), and Morgan Cardet (of Matt Bain). Hopefully I’ll see some of you there! Get tickets here.

It reminded me to put together the annual Great Big Watch Calendar of 2026. There are so many events/meetups/auctions/loose hangs, I’ve aggregated what I know in one calendar. Let me know what I missed:

Beyond Miami, I plan to attend at least Watches & Wonders in April and the unofficial New York Watch Week in October. One question I often get:

• Should I, a collector, attend Watches & Wonders? Probably only if a brand invites you, or if it serves as a jumping-off point to visit other watchmakers and manufacturers in Switzerland. You won’t get hands on with many (or any) watches at the show otherwise. It’s geared towards retailers and media—the first four days are for industry. But it’s becoming slightly more friendly to enthusiasts. Anyone can buy tickets to the show’s final three days, and Watches & Wonders is promising more public programming throughout the city in 2026. Tickets are still available.

• Geneva Watch Days, NY Watch Week, and Dubai Watch Week (biennial) are more collector-focused.

More events, auctions, and tips on which ones collectors should attend (or not) in the Great Big Watch Calendar.

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UNPOLISHED STORE

The Unpolished Matte Calfskin Strap has a matte finish that sits neatly between between dressy and distressed. More durable and dressed-up than nubuck or suede, but not as dressed-up as traditional calfskin. It works on everything from a Patek Philippe Calatrava to a vintage Sub. Made in the U.S. using French Calfskin. Gold-colored buckles also now available!

Now $100 in the Unpolished Store:

SHOP LEATHER STRAPS

The Roundup

🎰 Watches Are Sports Now. I wrote about prediction markets, Kalshi x Bezel, and financial nihilism. In a ringing endorsement, said it has “Wayyyyy more numbers than I ever expected to read on Unpolished. Love it :)”:

“The only way a company like Kalshi can justify its massive valuation is to financialize culture.”

🔫 You can buy Pierce Brosnan’s ‘Bond’ Omega Seamaster (kind of). Also from the newsletter: A prop from Pierce Brosnan’s James Bond, an idea for a modern Rolex Tru-Beat, and would you rather be Berneron or Brette

• Correction: In Thursday’s newsletter, I said that Berneron has delivered 48 Mirages—that’s incorrect. He’s delivered 72, which means ~8% have come to the secondary market.

⏰ Stop Waking up to your iPhone Alarm. Cool alarm clocks for collectors—a guide for the design-obsessed. For some reason, this fun piece from last May has gotten a second life in the past few weeks:

“iPhone alarms suck. In 2022, I moved away from mine so I could give myself 30 minutes each morning before getting sucked into the daily vortex known as the modern human condition.

More than that, I love the idea of turning your back on modern technology, if only for a blissful morning, to improve your life. That’s the appeal of watches, after all—anti-tech tech. Who says it has to stop at wristwatches?”

🤓 A closer look at J.N. Shapiro’s numeral design. From their designer, Lee Yuen-Rapati. The numerals have curved strokes, asymmetry, and leaf-shaped “serifs” that feel playful, matching Shapiro’s guilloche.

🤦‍♀️ Astor & Banks says it had to pause delivery of its Terra Scout GMT thanks to Scout Motors. I get wanting to protect your IP, but so many of these lawsuits are so dumb. A tough break, especially as Scout is busy fighting off a new class-action lawsuit from its own dealer network over its direct sales model.

🥵 Eric Ku shows some excellent vintage Pateks in this video with Fourtane, including a special 3940 we saw in this newsletter just last week.

📚 Cam Wolf, who covers watches for GQ, has a deal to write a book called A History of Watches in 17 Timepieces. “Using the most iconic wristwatch designs as a framework—from the Cartier Tank to the Apple Watch—to trace the evolution of watches from tools, to luxury items, to objects of culture, and the obsessive world of collectors that has risen up.” A solid premise for a book—as long as that’s the only time it uses the word “iconic!” Congrats Cam.

❗️ Founding Members: If you haven’t yet, here are instructions for ordering your copy of the 2025 Rewind Magazine. If you’re an annual subscriber and want to upgrade, I sent you an email last Monday with a private link.

Finally, I published my first YouTube: 7 Watch Predictions for 2026

Watch below, and subscribe to the Unpolished Watch channel. It’s a video format of my earlier 2026 predictions. For now, you can expect a new video every few weeks. And I got a new camera, so quality will only get better—I expect we’ll be doing “tier rankings” and hating on Hublot in no time!

Thanks to Isaiah Williams, who’s editing the videos and has also made the last few podcast episodes sound better:

Thanks for reading (and watching),

Tony

Get in touch:

• tony[at]unpolishedwatches.com

• Instagram

• Leave a comment or tap the heart, my favorite:

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I often get questions about the watch shows, events, and gatherings worth attending. Here’s a calendar of major watch events in 2026—I stuck to gatherings that are open to the public. There’s been a boom in events and shows over the past few years. A few notes:

• Watches & Wonders is the biggest. Since 2023, it’s occurred every spring in Geneva. It’s the biggest trade show: 60+ brands, led by Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richemont’s brands, take up residence in a convention center near the Geneva Airport, while hundreds more exhibit at satellite shows throughout the city. It’s geared towards retailers and media—the first four days are industry days. But it’s becoming slightly more friendly to enthusiasts. Anyone can buy tickets to the show’s final three days, and it’s also promising more programming throughout the city in 2026.

  • Should you, a collector, attend Watches & Wonders? Probably only if a brand invites you, or if it serves as a jumping-off point to visit other watchmakers and manufacturers in Switzerland. You won’t get hands on with many (or any) watches at the show otherwise.

  • Geneva Watch Week, the biennial Dubai Watch Week, or NY Watch Week are more collector-focused.

• For vintage collectors, the twice-annual auction seasons in Geneva and New York (and Hong Kong) also serve as meetups. Over the course of a long weekend, the major auction houses host live sales, offering the chance to preview hundreds of watches. The November Geneva season is often the biggest since it’s alongside the annual GPHG awards. In the lead-up to these sales, these watches also travel to major cities, so keep an eye out for those previews.

• Every year, I try to attend at least: (1) Watches & Wonders, (2) a Windup Fair, (3) an auction season, plus (4) either Geneva Watch Days or New York Watch Week. Since I cover watches for a living, my goal is to spend at least 2 weeks in Switzerland every year.1 In-person events renew my faith in humanity, bring me out from behind a screen, and provide tons of story ideas.

• What about 2026? As I write this in the first week of March, I have plans to attend the Original Miami Beach Antique Show (where I’ll also be hosting a panel), Watches & Wonders, and New York’s unofficial “Watch Week” in October.

Let me know if I missed any major shows:

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Schedule of big watch industry events and hangs in 2026

• March 8: British Watchmakers Day, London

• March 13-15: Windup Watch Fair, Dallas

• March 21: HSNY Gala, New York

• March 26-30: Original Miami Beach Antique Show

• April 12-20: Watches & Wonders, Geneva

  • Public days: April 18-20

  • Time to Watches

  • Chronopolis

• April 24-26: Auctions, Hong Kong

• May 1-3: Windup Watch Fair, San Francisco

• May 4: Indies NYC, New York

• May 9-11: Auctions, Geneva

  • Antiquorum, Christie’s, Phillips, & Sotheby’s

• May 27-21: Couture, Las Vegas

• June 12-15: Auctions, New York

  • Christie’s, Sotheby’s, Phillips

• July 10-12: Windup Watch Fair, Chicago

• Sept. 2-6: Geneva Watch Days

• October 16-18: New York Watch Week

  • Windup Watch Fair

  • WatchTime

• November 6-9: Auctions, Geneva

  • Antiquorum, Christie’s, Phillips, & Sotheby’s

• November 7: GPHG Awards, Geneva

• November 20-22: The Escapement, Abu Dhabi

• November TBD: Auctions, Hong Kong

• December TBD: Auctions, New York

There are many other private, trade, or regional shows throughout the year, including:

• March 7-8: District Time, Washington D.C.

• June 6: Collective Horology Open House, Los Angeles

• August 13-16: Watch Week Aspen, Aspen, Colo.

• November 28-29: MicroPraha, Prague

• November TBD: WatchPro Salon, London

• Intersect Watch Shows, New York City (Feb. 27-28), Los Angeles (July 17-18), Austin (November)

• Minutes + Hours Shows, Chicago (April), Austin (November)

• Timepiece Shows: Vancouver (April 25-26), Montreal (May 30-31), Toronto (September 26-27)

This is focused on the U.S. and Europe, the markets I know best and where most subscribers are located. It doesn’t include Tokyo Watch Week (October), the Hong Kong Watch & Clock Fair, India Watch Weekend, and I’m sure many others. Let me know what I missed. I also didn’t include brand-driven “events” like LVMH Watch Week or AP Social Club.

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I wrote a whole letter about Bezel and Kalshi launching watch prediction markets. Then, I thought to myself, “Self, does anyone actually care?”

If I were scrolling through my feed, I’d probably see the announcement, mutter something about the continued downfall of society, and keep moving. So instead I took a close look at the markets right now to see if they’re tradeable (spoiler: Not really):

🎰 For my take on prediction markets, financial nihilism, and how watches are sports now:

In this week’s letter: Pierce Brosnan’s “Bond” Seamaster; my pitch for a modern Rolex Tru-Beat; Berneron, Brette, and the “flipper” threshold; and a few hidden vintage gems at auction.

🔫 Your chance to get Pierce Brosnan’s ‘James Bond’ Omega Seamaster, kind of

An Omega Seamaster with ties to Pierce Brosnan’s James Bond is up at a Hollywood auction. The auction says this is a non-functional Omega Seamaster that’s “an amalgamation of parts from various special-effects watches made and used during this era of the Bond franchise.”

I reached out to the auction and asked if they could provide any further information. They kept the consignor private, but added this:

“We can confirm that it originates from the collection of a crew member on the Bond franchise during the Pierce Brosnan era. We can also state that the watch was assembled from its various SFX parts by a crew member.”

These prop watches are interesting—all those Steve McQueen Heuer Monacos always get headlines—but assessing memorabilia provenance and authenticity is pretty different from watches, so I never know what to make of them. And who knows how many of these prop Seamasters are out there. It seems more suited for a Bond collector than a pure watch collector, but Bond is so closely associated with watches that it might be a chance to own a little piece of history (or something adjacent to history, I guess?).

We’ve seen a couple of other Brosnan-associated Omegas over the years:

• A Seamaster he wore in The World Is Not Enough sold for £50k in 2021

• There’s also a famous Seamaster that Brosnan gave to a photographer for his birthday.

This Seamaster with no movement inside is at Propstore LA on March 26. The estimate is $2-4k, and the bid has already hit the low reserve. Find it here.

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🎯 An Idea for a Modern Rolex Tru-Beat

In April 2025, Rolex filed a trademark for “Tru-Beat.” It’s a model Rolex introduced back in 1954, right when it started making its professional watches, adding a dead-beat seconds so doctors could more accurately track the pulse.

The caliber has a mechanism that ticks once per second (like the quartz watches that’d come later) instead of the smoother “sweep” of a typical mechanical movement. (Interestingly, Omega also introduced its deadbeat seconds, the Synchrobeat, in 1954.)

I love these vintage watches that were made for a very specific purpose. I remember Alton Brown said he used to hate any kitchen gadget that only had one purpose (“unitaskers”), but then realized that was just his lack of imagination. Why not use a panini maker to make waffle cones?

That’s how I feel about the Tru-Beat.

The Tru-Beat ref. 6556 wasn’t super popular—or reliable—so was discontinued by 1960. Mostly made in stainless steel, but insanely rare and pretty in gold. Nowadays, many Tru-Beats don’t even have their original deadbeat caliber because they’re so hard to fix.

Usually, these trademark filings don’t mean much—there are also filings for Bubbleback, Padellone, Space-Dweller, or Milsub. Perhaps, as Rolex gets deeper into CPO, it’s a way to protect its heritage.

But the Land-Dweller did turn out to be real!

I doubt Rolex would bring back a dead-beat seconds (how cool would it be if it did?), but it got me thinking about what a modern, high-precision “Tru-Beat” could be. The patent behind the Dynapulse escapement says it can run at frequencies as high as 10 Hz (the Land-Dweller’s at 5 Hz). Rolex has said this high frequency helps with accuracy. So it make me wonder…maybe a super high-frequency watch could be the modern “Tru-Beat?” It’s a fresh idea for an old name.

Perhaps Rolex could go even further. From the Dynapulse patent:

“Naturally, it can be envisaged to take advantage of the escapement device to sustain the oscillations of any type of oscillator, whether it is a sprung-balance type oscillator as described previously or any other type of oscillator, for example, an inertial element guided and elastically recalled by flexible blades.”

The idea of using flexible blades as an oscillator has been kicking around watches for a while. Remember the Zenith Oscillator from a few years ago? It’s something Armin Strom is also known for.

An amazing technical innovation, but, as a commenter put it just the other day, “It's as if nobody wants half-second accuracy at the cost of wearing a visual seizure on your wrist.”

To connect one final string on my conspiracy board: Guess where Rolex CEO Jean-Frédéric Dufour spent 5 years as CEO until he took the Rolex gig in 2014?

That’s right, Zenith, where surely there was ongoing R&D for its fancy oscillator. Perhaps this is why, when you go to the Land-Dweller webpage, it says:

A glimpse of the future. Reinventing the present to lay foundations for the future.

We’re only about a month away from Watches & Wonders, so I hope you’ll allow the good-natured conjecture. More fun than placing a bet on a prediction market, at least?

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FROM THE UNPOLISHED STORE

The Unpolished Canvas Strap is back! It’s now available in 20mm and 22mm (in addition to 18 and 19mm). This is the best canvas strap I’ve ever worn. That’s because it entirely canvas—no padding. It’s only 2mm thick, which means it’s soft and flexible when you wear it for the first time, but gets even better with wear. Shop the Unpolished Store.

The Roundup

If you’re an indie watchmaker, how many resales is too many? A clever GMT from a new microbrand, and a pair of vintage finds.

👀 Another Berneron Mirage 38 hit the secondary market.

It was listed at $240k earlier this week.

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Like many red-blooded, especially male Americans, way too much of my brain capacity is dedicated to sports. I’m constantly checking scores, as if it really matters that my Saint Louis Billikens won by 14 last night. My Instagram feed is mostly Caleb Williams highlights, the Malice at the Palace was a seminal moment in my childhood, and I can still give you the shot-by-shot from Tiger Woods’ 2019 Masters win.

Increasingly, watches feel like sports—for better and certainly for worse.

Billionaires are buying up old watch brands the way they used to gobble up sports teams.1 We treat our favorite brands like our favorite teams, and our favorite watchmakers (or brand leaders) like our favorite players.

Take all that talk about the Morgan Stanley report

It ranks the top 50 Swiss brands by revenue and is poured over like NBA standings or NFL playoff scenarios. Tudor’s up. Omega’s down. What are they doing wrong? If I were the coach, here’s what I’d do differently.

If you own a Vacheron or Cartier, you might even feel slightly better about yourself because the brand supposedly had a good year, as if it really matters whether some Swiss company sold a few more watches. A logo and color combination give us a sense of pride, nostalgia, community, and tribalism.

Especially because watches are so expensive, we’re also mostly left watching from the sidelines. We root for our favorite teams/brands and even have schadenfreude when other ones lose. We lament bad brand management like bad play calls.

Like any good sports rankings, there’s also the reaction to the rankings. You might’ve seen Swatch Group’s letter taking issue with the annual Morgan Stanley report, but I noticed that even Tudor commented to Les Temps about its issues with the report:

“The gap between the assumptions of the Morgan Stanley study and the reality of Tudor’s business performance is so wide, year after year, that we question the relevance of the methodology and the integrity of the report’s authors.”

Harsh! Tudor also said that while Morgan Stanley attributes 70% of its business to wholesale, Tudor is exclusively wholesale.

I understand the brands’ frustrations. However, if you try so hard to keep something a secret, of course we’re gonna try to figure it out. Like with our sports teams, we feel entitled to some information about these brands we invest so much into.

The Morgan Stanley report has managed to get Swatch Group to disclose more numbers than it ever does. A little transparency is good, especially if you’re a bank writing a report mostly for professional investors.

And maybe that’s what they wanted all along?

All that to say: If any investment bank wants to partner with Unpolished and make up some rankings to shake the tree and see what falls out, you know where to find me.

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Bezel x Kalshi Prediction Markets for Watches

Another way watches are now more like sports: Gambling. (Or whatever you want to call it.)

Kalshi and Bezel launched prediction markets for watches this week, a convoluted sentence that wouldn’t have made sense even six months ago and still doesn’t to Mrs. Unpolished.

Kalshi offers prediction markets to bet on elections, sports, ghoulish war trading, and now, “Watch Futures.” It’s using Bezel’s “Beztimate” data to back the markets. Kalshi has a valuation of $11b, so Bezel, and really all of watches, are a relatively small concern for a company with ambitions to let you “trade on anything.” It’s part of a larger push into collectibles by Kalshi—Labubus and Pokémon cards came before.

If you’re a Rolex Submariner, you won’t like to hear that you’re now in the same category as weird monster-looking keychains or trading cards. It was probably inevitable that prediction markets would come for watches—the only way a company like Kalshi can justify its massive valuation is to financialize culture.

And I love to place a few chips on red as much as the next degenerate, but only in Vegas or very occasionally, Rivers Casino in Des Plaines, Ill. The proliferation of gambling into every corner of culture has many saying we’re cooked.

BUT plenty of people already look at you, me, or certainly Kevin O’Leary spending untold sums on watches as a sign that we’ve been cooked. Layering prediction markets on top certainly compounds the problem, but it’s not like watches were pure as the Virgin Mary before Watch Futures came along.2

I don’t totally mind the “financialization” of watches that purists often decry. Watches have gotten expensive, and it’s reasonable to treat your watches, if not like assets, at least something akin to a store of value—no one wants to lose a bunch of money on a Blancpain Villeret Triple Calendar and be taken for a fool (I hope you got a discount!).

Kalshi launched Watch Futures with two types of markets:

• Quantitative: Bet on whether the price of Rolex, Tudor, Cartier, or certain models will go up/down;

• Qualitative: Bet on whether watches like the Rolex GMT “Pepsi” will be released or discontinued.

Here’s what it looks like:

I talked to Bezel co-founder Quaid Walker, who gave two justifications for Watch Futures: (1) transparency, and (2) democratization:

• “Watch pricing is opaque,” he said. “Folks who are insiders and know where to look can aggregate their own data, but the market could benefit from more transparency.”

• “We’re also excited because people are really passionate about watches, but the barrier to collecting is so high.”

I mostly agree—certainly on the first one.3 At their best, prediction markets can surface information and create more transparency. That said, this argument almost presupposes that insider trading is happening on these platforms, which is…frowned upon…in regulated financial markets.

But two days after launch, what’s actually happening in these Watch Futures?

Let’s take a closer look, starting with the most popular market, the Rolex Index:

• Notice that large bid-ask spread: That’s a 5¢ bid-ask spread—a healthy, liquid market would have a 1¢ spread. And the order book is super thin at those prices: Just $34 of contracts at the lowest ask (64¢). In other words, if you wanted to bet even just $34 on “Yes,” you’d move the price by one cent.

• For the first two days, Kalshi subsidized the experiment. A few of the Watch Futures markets were part of its “rewards pool,” which incentivizes market makers and investors to provide liquidity. It kept the spread narrow and liquidity higher. But that ended on March 5.

• Now, the Rolex market is mostly untradeable. The cost of the spread alone is higher than any realistic monthly gain in Rolex value. Meanwhile, if you wanted to buy just $1,000 of “Yes,” you’d move the price almost 20¢ (notice how there’s only $725 of contracts from 64-66¢ before jumping to 83¢).

• It’s the same story for other markets: Cartier, Tudor, Rolex, the Starbucks Submariner.

  • Contrast it with a healthy, active market like for the Democratic presidential nominee to see the difference.

Let’s look at one more market

For whether Rolex will discontinue the steel GMT-Master II Pepsi this year:

• The liquidity story is even worse. While the spread for “Yes” trade looks like 1¢, it’s paper thin (left). There are just $6 of bids at 83-84¢. If you wanted to sell a "Yes" position of any meaningful size, the "real" bid is down at 77¢. This means a collector trying to exit just a $500 position would take an immediate 8% haircut to find enough buyers. The “No” side is essentially a ghost town (right).

• Market movers: With such a thin order book, anyone can completely move the market with ~$1,000—whether you’re an unwitting retailer trader or wannabe market manipulator.

• Even if you won, you lost. Imagine you made a $500 bet on “Yes” at 68¢ yesterday. Today, the price is 84¢—you made a good bet. But, there aren’t enough bids for you to get your money out at 84¢. If you sold all $500 of contracts, you’d immediately take the price down to 77¢, shrinking your “profit” by more than half.

• You’re stuck. Rich on paper, but you have to take a discount now, or wait until the market finally resolves to get your money out. It’s not a market, it’s more like a party where the music cut out, but people can only file out the door one at a time. Which introduces a final issue:

• It’s not like Rolex announces when it discontinues watches. There will be no decree from Geneva that the “GMT-Master II Pepsi is discontinued.” That means you could be caught in a limbo where it’s technically removed from Rolex’s website, but there are still reported deliveries of a watch. Does that mean that GMT-Master production is discontinued? That’s for Kalshi to decide.4

  • That’s how these qualitative markets resolve (or don’t); the quantitative markets resolve on Bezel’s proprietary data, which introduces its own potential issues.

  • Add in that the r/kalshi subreddit is basically users complaining about how they weren’t paid out. I find the rules determining the Watch Futures markets opaque and ambiguous, which opens the door for not getting paid out on what you might see as a technicality.

Remember Unpolished collecting rule #21: When it’s time to sell, liquidity is as important as market price.

Rule #21 applies to financial markets even more than watches. While a Pepsi GMT isn’t the most liquid thing in the world, it’s more liquid than a Kalshi contract for whether or not the Pepsi GMT will be discontinued.

You could say: Yea, but it’s only day three. Give the market time to grow. Fair enough, but you could also argue that the launch might be the biggest marketing push these markets get. When else is a Kalshi x Bezel tweet going to get 2.8m views?

Taking the under

There are other issues with prediction markets—cultural, societal, legal. I’m not going to lecture young men about how they should or shouldn’t spend their time or money. There’s plenty of hand-wringing going on elsewhere; has a balanced breakdown for how this might apply to watches.

Remember how I said this follows experiments with other collectibles like Pokémon and Labubus? As of today, I couldn’t find any active markets for those from at least the past month.

So who knows if this’ll last.

I did find one collectibles market with high volume: What will Logan Paul’s Pikachu go for at auction? (Another sentence that makes no sense to Mrs. Unpolished.)

It reminded me of being in Geneva during last fall’s auction season: All anyone wanted to talk about was how much we thought that steel Patek 1518 would sell for.

It’s kinda like sports: No one really bets on how many games the Seahawks will win in 2025; they bet on whether they’ll beat the Patriots in Super Bowl LX. We love to talk about the biggest and the best.

I could see a market around big watch sales like that being interesting, or, at least, fun. Is it good for society? That’s another conversation.5

Collectors as Lab Rats

Watch Futures are being marketed as “for collectors,” making the market more transparent and accessible.

But really, collectors are the test subjects. For the 48 hours after launch, Kalshi offered rewards to high-frequency traders, subsidizing market liquidity. When those rewards left, so did the money, and now we’ve got incredibly thin and fragile markets.

Presumably, Kalshi is trying to use these cultural assets to hook us into its wider ecosystem of finance/sports/entertainment betting. Come for Rolex, stay for the Oscars, S&P 500, or the Ayatollah.

All of it—crypto, NFTs, sports, prediction markets—feels borne from this financial nihilism young people feel, that there’s no way to make it in this world, so might as well take a turn at the casino. A sense that the system is “rigged,” ignoring that prediction markets can be just as rigged.

Meanwhile, if they can get enough of us to actually bet on Rolex, they’ve got a useful data set they can sell back to institutions—auctions, dealers, insurers, retailers.

It’s a brilliant business model if it works, and it just might—but this says more about where society has gone wrong than anything Kalshi or Bezel have done.

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The Protection of Precision

Watches are a funny thing because you have to suspend disbelief to take them seriously, and the extent to which you decide to suspend disbelief determines what you like or don’t.

What I mean: “Nobody needs these,” is our oft-repeated cliché, a bit of feigned self-deprecation that reminds us more accurate timekeepers are in our pockets or on our microwaves.

AND YET, we suspend disbelief, taking seriously the mechanical watch’s continued pursuit of accuracy.

Perhaps it’s because if watches completely toss aside the timekeeping, we’re left with nothing but wrist jewelry—and most of us can’t admit we’re just obsessing over pretty little metal bracelets.

I was in a sprinter van with Wei Koh a few months ago, being shuttled out to some Geneva suburb where the watch manufacturing actually happens, when he asked the group of assembled media members:

“What’s the most accurate watch you own?”

I think Wei might’ve recently acquired a Grand Seiko UFA, prompting the line of inquiry.

I tossed the question over a bit. Technically, my answer is something like the Casiotron 50th Anniversary, which uses radio signals to sync with atomic clocks every night—though perhaps this isn’t keeping in the spirit of Wei’s question.

Beyond that, I mostly have a roster of older watches that proudly proclaim things like “Superlative Chronometer,” even if they’re well past a chronometric mid-life crisis. They keep pretty decent time, though I’d check the Casiotron if I had to be somewhere at zero six hundred hours sharp.

All this to say: Accuracy has never been particularly important to me.

I’ve never been able to totally suspend my disbelief and access the portion of watch enthusiasm that speaks about accuracy in split seconds and tracks it with timegraphers.

I’m closer to the we do not know its service history, but the watch is running well end of the spectrum.

COSC, the Center for Swiss Something or Other

A few weeks ago, COSC, the Center for Swiss Chronometer Something or Other (the acronym works in French, I’m told), introduced its new Excellence standard. From the Mothership:

“Movements then return to the manufacturer to be cased and subjected to an additional five days of testing. This will include robotic simulation of daily wrist wear for 24 hours, followed by testing where the average daily rate must fall between -2/+4 seconds per day.” [emphasis mine]

These cased-up watches are also tested for anti-magnetism and power reserve. It’s more stringent than the existing COSC certification, which tests only movements and only to an accuracy of -4/+6 seconds.

It’s a response to METAS, used by Omega and Tudor, as well as the litany of brand specs like Rolex’s Superlative Chronometer or the Grand Seiko Standard.

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Rolex and the Robots

Rolex’s Superlative Chronometer testing uses a similar approach, saying it has robots simulate real-life wear. But Rolex doesn’t stop with robots.

Recently, Coronet got actual quotes, attributed to an actual person at Rolex, about its approach to chronometry. Rare!

“It’s not precision, but the protection of precision,” a Rolex rep told Coronet. It published an interview with Felix Grasser, a chronometry specialist in Rolex R&D, who said it’s “found that the way a watch is worn is the leading cause of accuracy issues. Rolex watch wearers lead very different lifestyles. Some are highly active, while others are more sedentary.”

It’s not always the most active people who have accuracy issues. To better understand these very human differences, Grasser said Rolex does something that there have been rumors about for years, but I don’t think had ever been confirmed:

“We are constantly conducting test campaigns involving hundreds of volunteers who are asked to wear modified or unmodified watches, sometimes with sensors. These studies, which are spread out over several months, or even years, enable us to look at the long-term behavior of the watches.”

That’s hundreds (or more!) of volunteers wearing test Rolex watches around town.

Wearers vs. Winders

All this reminded me of a recent conversation I had with Nathan Bobinchak, Oak & Oscar’s in-house watchmaker. After servicing lots of Rolex watches, he noticed wear patterns generally fit into two categories, which he referred to as Winders and Wearers:

• Wearers: Owners who wear their watch every day.

  • Kill their rotor axles, reversers, along with the escape wheel and third wheel (never stop moving)

• Winders: Owners who wear their watch intermittently, requiring it to be manually wound when picked up again.

  • Kill their setting wheels and pinions (the crown is the failure point)

It’s an endearing reminder: While you might be able to group us owners into categories, we aren’t robots.

Beyond Rolex, I found a few brands that tout human testing, but usually in reference to their ambassadors: think Rafa Nadal wearing an RM during the French Open or Breitling and its cringey squads. But that’s more marketing than substance.1

It reminds me of the old cybersecurity adage—despite all the technology, firewalls, and phishing tests, the human is the most common point of failure.

Sometimes, brands get so caught up in celebrities and certifications that they forget it’s mostly normal people doing mostly normal things with their watches.2 And as Rolex’s Grasser says, we humans are the leading cause of accuracy issues.

And we should take pride in that. No AI or robot arm can simulate the entirely mundane task of walking the dog, folding the laundry, or eating a taco.

Okay, I think we’ve suspended disbelief long enough for today.

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The Roundup

Inside the new ‘Rolex University,’ how it differs from the old Rolex University, and the trade-offs we make; a different take on the Quartz/Currency Crisis; a special First Series Patek Philippe 3940.

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