10 Takes | Cartier, Daniel Roth, Swatch x Royal Oak, and More
Why more brands need to find their version of Christopher Nolan's 'Batman,' where did all the dive watches go, and watchmaking's Four Families.
Welcome to 10 Takes. I often write newsletter bits that are cut for space or that are seeds of a more interesting idea. Let’s empty the notebook with takes on Cartier, new Daniel Roth’s auction debut, Swatch x Royal Oak, Geneva auction highlights, and where did all the dive watches go?
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1/ The Four Families
Investor Paul Graham recently wrote “The Brand Age,” which uses the Swiss watch industry to argue that as technology matures, product function becomes commoditized and companies compete on brand instead of quality. I’d quibble with some of the details, but one fact stuck out:
“Only three [Swiss] watchmakers survived the dark days of the 70s and 80s as independent companies: Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Rolex.”
In 1970, there were ~1,600 Swiss watch companies, so I thought he had to be missing at least a few brands. But I could only come up with one: Chopard, which the Schuefele family acquired in 1963 before the quartz/currency crisis.
The rest died off, became zombies, or were gobbled up by holding companies. Forget the Holy Trinity, I think these four companies that have managed to stay independent—Audemars Piguet, Chopard, Patek Philippe, and Rolex—deserve their own nickname. Maybe the Four Families?
2/ Where is Cartier’s creativity?
The many Cartier watches coming to auction at Sotheby’s this weekend are a reminder of its rich back catalog. Take this hexagon from 1940s Cartier Paris, or this Stirrup from 1960s London. It makes it even more of a bummer that this year’s Privé efforts are mostly rehashes of watches from the last few years: a slightly better Normale, a slightly worse Tank Cintrée. An updated skeleton Crash, that, the more I look at it, the more I wonder why they put the crown there.
If Cartier can bring back the obscure Pebble—only a handful were ever made— and turn it into a hit, there’s no limit to the models it can revive. I’d like to see it take a few more chances instead of running a greatest hits album that has some asking: Is that limited-edition from a few years ago really that limited?
3/ How much do we really want Daniel Roth?
After visiting La Fabrique du Temps last November, I wrote that Daniel Roth is making some of the best watches today. Movements and cases that are clearly better than 90s Roth, but drawing cues from that era.
The Rose Gold Extra Plat retails for $67k, obviously a lot of money, but not offensive compared to unproven indies at $100k. The Tourbillon is $212k, so I’ll have to keep taking my chances with gravity’s impact on my escapement.
When it comes to the Extra Plat, I’d been wondering about: (1) production numbers, and (2) how they’ll perform on the secondary market. We’re getting a glimpse of both this auction season.
