When you're researching watches why do you begin with the Hairspring podcast? Kidding. What's the last watch that made you change your mind about a view you held? XOXOXOXO -Erik
I always start my 'research' by studying max's latest terrible takes.
Onto your question. I saw a Hajime Asaoka for the first time in person in November, and was deeply impressed. I probably unfairly lumped it in with brands like Naoya Hida or Kikuchi Nakagawa (and have thought about Kurono as 'yet another microbrand'). Interesting movement architecture, nicely finished, and his design sensibility is actually fresh and new, though with obvious historical inspiration. I'm late to the party, but he's a real watchmaker.
Some of Breguet's releases from the last couple months give me hope for a brand that, 6 months ago, I had no hope for.
On the flip side: Dennison watches feel pretty cheap in person.
Love that answer. Asaoka is lovely. Apparently he likes to jumble around his wait list based on the mood that day, that's the only downside. But beautiful work. Noir is top 3 from Japan for me.
I haven't handled Dennison ever but already roasted them as my ugliest watch of 25 in upcoming ep hahah.
Keep up the excellent answers. Your one and only true love, E
Hi Tony—I personally do not purchase watches that exceed a certain price point. An obvious result is that I barely experience watches that you and others (such as Eric Wind or Gustafson write and speak of) firsthand. Do you find that to be the case with most of your audience, or am I in the minority? This fascinates me as the discourse (the substacks and podcasts) around the content (the watches) becomes the actual content.
However, this discourse (to my knowledge) remains largely media– (see a Blog to Watch, Hodinkee, etc.), dealer– (see Hairspring or Wind Vintage), and even watch company–driven (see the Rolex books on the Submariner and Datejust or the Polerouter book). Are there watch history essays or books that are academically rigorous, published by universities such as analogous Art and Architectural History books?
-Pierre Donze's book on Rolex, and other books about the Swiss watch industry, are academic and generally enjoyable (he's a professor).
-David Landes' 'Revolution in Time'
-David Rooney's 'About Time'
-I also enjoy Rebecca Struthers' book, Hands of Time, for similar reasons.
Some of these take a longer historical timeline (back to the invention of water clocks, even), but are interesting. Sometimes the best tidbits I find are in essays or books about adjacent areas of culture—fashion, design, etc.
Your first point is an interesting one and something I think about a lot. Because while I'm lucky and travel to see releases, auctions, etc., the watches I personally buy are not six-figures +, though I do continue to enjoy experiencing and writing about them. The other day, someone made the point to me that newsletters like this, or in-depth books, essays, and research can help with our appreciation of these historical or well-crafted objects which most of us will likely never own, and in turn can even add to our enjoyment of the more accessible watches we buy (since they're part of this story). I hope this is at least somewhat true!
Vacheron had arguably the best releases of 2025, and certainly the most diverse. The Solaria and La Quête Du Temps clock are of course the most impressive complicated releases of the year. But there's also more commercial stuff like the steel 222 and even the 36mm QPs just released (I haven't seen in person so not sure how compelling they are to me at $100k, especially compared to 90s examples, but still, a strong effort, and releasing small, dressy complications in a way that its larger comps like PP and AP aren't is *exactly* what VC should be doing).
To me, the time-only Traditionelle could use an aesthetic refresh as a next step! Anything you think they need to add or change in the collection?
Thanks for your thoughts, indeed that was quite an impressive set of rollouts in a quite broad range of releases. I was really impressed by the 222 in steel, this is a watch that really speaks to me (the understated elegance, the details, that bracelet..) and could be the first VC I could pull the trigger on (but I need to overlook some tech specs that don't really match the price). I know you had the opportunity to try it on.
Beyond that I'd like to see the Overseas add a 38 or 39 option, I feel there's a gap between the 35 and 41mm. I feel they could probably retire the FiftySix. And I'd like to see VC build upon the Overseas Everest, I really liked the design and feel Vacheron could go more into the adventure/luxury segment
of the signature integrated bracelet sports watches from the holy trinity, the 222 is my favorite. 37mm, but the overall dimensions make it look good on a range of wrists, from mine to Lebron James'.
I agree with your other assessments too, btw. FiftySix never made sense. Overseas 35 is too diminutive, and the 41 is too big.
In short, more refinements to the standard collection, but I'm much more excited about VC than I would've been 12 months ago.
nino and i ran into each other last night at redbar and talked about doing one earlier next year. but only if tom comes! there are a few other spaces i'd also like to host small events at in '26. and not a concern for you, but i'd love to figure out a way to take the show on the road sometime next year.
I'm not sure if you've discussed this before, but could you talk about your favorite watch bracelets? I find them incredibly interesting and feel they’re a detail that’s often overlooked.
agreed, and i think 2025 was a good year for bracelets. the new Rolex Settimo bracelet, JLC pink gold Reverso mesh bracelet, even the Land-Dweller bracelet. In modern watches, Rolex and Tudor make great bracelets. I can't wait until they let me buy the 5-link bracelet for my BB58. Some of the integrated bracelet watches are very comfortable, even if the entire package is often too big for me—the Royal Oak and Moser Streamliner come to mind. It came up elsewhere, but German manufacturer Staib makes a good modern bracelet. Mark Cho makes a beautiful gold bracelet for Cartiers.
In older watches, Lange Wellendorf bracelets, vintage Gay Freres bracelets, the IWC Mark XII (and others in the Mark Series), some old Piaget bracelets are like art.
My favorite bracelets are probably good vintage beads-of-rice bracelets made by makers like Gay Freres, Montal, etc.
I can't find a ton out there, might be a good subject for a longer article.
Hey Tony! What makes you optimistic about the watch industry for the new year and vice versa… what makes you concerned about the watch industry going into 2026?
i'm optimistic because reality and expectations seem more aligned than in previous years. i mean this both at brands and with clients. (kind of like what I explored in the Geneva auction report last week, link below). perhaps this will cause brands to reconsider the price-to-value they offer. as cpo and secondary becomes more popular, brands will have to reckon with how their watches are perceived on the secondary.
However, it still seems to be the trend that many brands are focused on serving a small, exclusive list of VVICs, which is reason to be pessimistic instead.
Good design is easy to copy. Complications have become democratized. Finishing seems to be going in the same direction; machine finishing is getting better, and hand finishing is becoming commercialized (“100€ for an interior angle”).
Assuming you agree that this trend is true, what features or traits do you think will set apart the watches enthusiasts truly care about from others? Or will the Baltics, True Norths, Frédérique Constants, and many others sap appreciation the brands they imitate?
I’d love to hear your thoughts, but here are some potential ideas that I have: history/ heritage of the originals, originality of design, advanced/ difficult production processes, communities/ enthusiasm for the brands.
Note: I don’t mean to imply that there is no room for the aforementioned companies, and I would probably buy some of their watches myself. Just that they are examples of brands who have taken elements of coveted watches and offered them at a fraction of the price.
I even recall asking Rolex about anniversaries during watches and wonders and they were clear they don’t explicitly celebrate anniversaries. But an anniversary LE is about the most un-Rolex thing I can think of anyway
outside of instagram, maybe some youtube channels like wristwatch revival, or hairspring podcast. Sotheby's and some private dealers do a good job with their listings. of course, the ocassional fratello or hodinkee article (I enjoyed recent articles about Roger Dubuis and AP John Shaeffer watches).
anything you've found? Honestly, I don't think there's a ton of high-quality, longer-form, consistent content that's focused on vintage watches.
Eric Wind and Charlie Dunne have had a good podcast going there on Patreon but spacing of their posts are really inconsistent. If it were to be done weekly it would really be a gem. Hairspring is sometimes good but the emphasis is not always on vintage per se
yea i like eric & charlie's, they gave us a bunch of good episodes before geneva auctions and then left us hanging for a month after haha
this is a privileged thing to say, but i learned a lot going to a few auction previews the past year and getting to sit with dealers/collectors and listen to them talk about what they saw while looking at watches. this isn't 'content' per se, but very valuable. Menta has done some YouTube videos like this though
My question would be do you also think the whole FP Journe community borders on a cult(ish)? It is easy to dismiss it as passionate collectors and brand enthusiasts but the intense devotion mixed with the extreme control (to get one at retail or if you did get one at retail the backlash if you want to sell it) seems too extreme in my humble opinion.
yea it's a cult. and auction prices right now are totally irrational.
but i also kinda believe everything's a cult nowadays (link below), and FPJ 'collectors' are simply a more extreme version of behavior we see all over, including in watches
Interesting to read how the secondary market continues to outpace the primary market. Curious about selling watches on the secondary market. What is the best pathway and what can you expect to realize for a gently used watch? Obviously Pateks and some Rolex references will demand a higher price/value, but what about those brands at the middle to lower end of the premium spectrum? Say an IWC pilot's chronograph?
'How to sell a watch,' is the topic of a future article—I get asked this a lot!
In general: Start by shopping around to the big pre-owned players, depending on segment of watch you're trying to sell. Think Analog Shift (Watches of Switzerland), 1916, European Watch Co., Bob's Watches. If you have a relationship with local retailers, they're increasingly willing to take in on trade, too. Players like this usually make the lowest offers, so you can get a sense for your floor. Then, I'd move on to smaller dealers that operate solo or on a small team, who might be able to work with you on an individual basis, or take on consignment. Think Tropical Watch, Wind Vintage, Menta, etc. If all else falls, list directly on eBay or C24.
In short: Cartier's popularity; the jump hour is different enough to pop on Instagram (every time I post a jump hour, it goes semi-viral); but also an easy-enough semi-complication (really just a module) that any brand can make and quickly adapt their existing time-only movements.
I was hoping the answer was that a secret Swiss cabal meets in an Alpine cave every 5 years to perform some archaic ritual that determines what they must all make in the coming years.
Ha, was waiting for another round with essentially two questions: (i) Any thoughts about the revival of King Seiko (I bought a SPB279j second hand in 2022 and am super happy)? Would love to see your view on King Seiko, its heritage and how it fits within Seiko and GS. (ii) I remember a short video in Instragram when the Moonswatch hype was real that you referred to old Swatch Chronographs as an alternative hence have been wondering who is the owner of the Moonswatch 1965 you used for the pictures of the canvas straps until I read your Geneva article to learn that's your own purchase - what has made you change your mind about Moonswatch or only this model in particular?
I bought that moonswatch in a moment of weakness at the geneva airport! i do think the 1965 is cool though, the best looking MoonSwatch yet (highly subjective).
The history of King Seiko is fascinating, and curious to see how it'll continue to fit into their portfolio, also interested to see how the wider launch of Credor at Watches & Wonders 2026 will go. Seiko and its various brands and sub-collections are a bit confusing, but King Seiko feels best in the pocket that your SPB279 is in, a faitful heritage-inspired reisssue (kind of like Rolex is to Tudor), since Seiko is mass market and Grand Seiko feels mostly modern (though I love many of the Grand Seiko First 'reissues'). Great buys on the secondary, pricing is a bit confused (read: high) on the primary.
Thanks for a year of good newsletters and I'm looking forward to the next!
I've been thinking about the middle-market, group-owned watchmakers in the tariff era. These guys weren't necessarily offering great values beforehand... Will these watchmakers be able to pass this next round of price hikes onto collectors?
Probably not, as there's no evidence they've been able to pass on the *last* round to clients/collectors. So many watches are available on discount, new, now. If there are more price increases they're just setting up retailers to offer more discounts—whether as an intentional strategy or the hard reality, I don't know. The Reverso Tribute Monoface Small Seconds is one of my favorite modern watches, but I'm also not telling anyone to buy that at full MSRP ($9,600). Hell, I want that new Tudor Ranger Dune, but I'm totally content waiting until it hits the secondary at lower prices. I won't use my anecdotal experience to generalize, but trends/data seem to indicate younger consumers are more interested and comfortable buying secondary luxury more broadly.
That said, as mentioned in other comments, brands are increasingly grappling with the reality that secondary/CPO is growing and is what consumers want, and that's where the potential growth lies. I think pricing strategy will have to collide with that eventually (or at least, I hope).
Thanks for the thoughtful reply-seems like the options to reset pricing are pretty limited, though, no? Some brands can start perpetually discounting, but it feels pretty unseemly for others. That leaves very few choices for a brand like JLC, which is now somehow fully in the Rolex price bracket.
Speaking of secondary markets, I see more and more why Morgan Stanley tracks value retention quarterly. When buyers are telling basically every brand they've taken too much price on new releases, maybe they'll have to listen (eventually!)
This is my subtle request for another 20 Predictions/Rumors article for the new year (sadly no skeletonized yet):
For 2026, do you see any change in pricing practices by the watch companies? With the tariff roll-back, I don't see that resulting in prices coming down and it seems a bit lame to have flat pricing be seen as a "win" for consumers...
ha, i was just looking at this to grade my predictions, about half were right (glass half full).
As for pricing, I'm not sure, but I think more brands and retailers will grapple with the discrepancy between their primary and secondary markets. The secondary market in general is hot and growing, while the primary is not, which means more brands will want to get into secondary/CPO. I'm not sure what that means for pricing strategy. That said, Patek Philippe is reportedly cutting prices with the tariffs ending.
For example, in my podcast episode with Steven Holtzman, he said he's opening a CPO-only Rolex store in Miami in January. I wouldn't be surprised to see similar moves from others.
When you're researching watches why do you begin with the Hairspring podcast? Kidding. What's the last watch that made you change your mind about a view you held? XOXOXOXO -Erik
I always start my 'research' by studying max's latest terrible takes.
Onto your question. I saw a Hajime Asaoka for the first time in person in November, and was deeply impressed. I probably unfairly lumped it in with brands like Naoya Hida or Kikuchi Nakagawa (and have thought about Kurono as 'yet another microbrand'). Interesting movement architecture, nicely finished, and his design sensibility is actually fresh and new, though with obvious historical inspiration. I'm late to the party, but he's a real watchmaker.
Some of Breguet's releases from the last couple months give me hope for a brand that, 6 months ago, I had no hope for.
On the flip side: Dennison watches feel pretty cheap in person.
Dennison watches ARE cheap, aren't they? I don't understand why they've gotten the mainstream "shine" that they have.
haha true
Lol same RE Max.
Love that answer. Asaoka is lovely. Apparently he likes to jumble around his wait list based on the mood that day, that's the only downside. But beautiful work. Noir is top 3 from Japan for me.
I haven't handled Dennison ever but already roasted them as my ugliest watch of 25 in upcoming ep hahah.
Keep up the excellent answers. Your one and only true love, E
Need more Sh*ttalking in podcasts/watch world in general, not a lot more, but more than we generally get. I can't wait for that episode
Hi Tony—I personally do not purchase watches that exceed a certain price point. An obvious result is that I barely experience watches that you and others (such as Eric Wind or Gustafson write and speak of) firsthand. Do you find that to be the case with most of your audience, or am I in the minority? This fascinates me as the discourse (the substacks and podcasts) around the content (the watches) becomes the actual content.
However, this discourse (to my knowledge) remains largely media– (see a Blog to Watch, Hodinkee, etc.), dealer– (see Hairspring or Wind Vintage), and even watch company–driven (see the Rolex books on the Submariner and Datejust or the Polerouter book). Are there watch history essays or books that are academically rigorous, published by universities such as analogous Art and Architectural History books?
A few recs:
-Pierre Donze's book on Rolex, and other books about the Swiss watch industry, are academic and generally enjoyable (he's a professor).
-David Landes' 'Revolution in Time'
-David Rooney's 'About Time'
-I also enjoy Rebecca Struthers' book, Hands of Time, for similar reasons.
Some of these take a longer historical timeline (back to the invention of water clocks, even), but are interesting. Sometimes the best tidbits I find are in essays or books about adjacent areas of culture—fashion, design, etc.
Your first point is an interesting one and something I think about a lot. Because while I'm lucky and travel to see releases, auctions, etc., the watches I personally buy are not six-figures +, though I do continue to enjoy experiencing and writing about them. The other day, someone made the point to me that newsletters like this, or in-depth books, essays, and research can help with our appreciation of these historical or well-crafted objects which most of us will likely never own, and in turn can even add to our enjoyment of the more accessible watches we buy (since they're part of this story). I hope this is at least somewhat true!
How is one man that sexy?
someone pull adam away from looking in the mirror again!
Thanks for a year of fascinating reads! Any thoughts on Vacheron’s anniversary year now that’s it’s a wrap, and where you see them going forward?
Vacheron had arguably the best releases of 2025, and certainly the most diverse. The Solaria and La Quête Du Temps clock are of course the most impressive complicated releases of the year. But there's also more commercial stuff like the steel 222 and even the 36mm QPs just released (I haven't seen in person so not sure how compelling they are to me at $100k, especially compared to 90s examples, but still, a strong effort, and releasing small, dressy complications in a way that its larger comps like PP and AP aren't is *exactly* what VC should be doing).
To me, the time-only Traditionelle could use an aesthetic refresh as a next step! Anything you think they need to add or change in the collection?
Thanks for your thoughts, indeed that was quite an impressive set of rollouts in a quite broad range of releases. I was really impressed by the 222 in steel, this is a watch that really speaks to me (the understated elegance, the details, that bracelet..) and could be the first VC I could pull the trigger on (but I need to overlook some tech specs that don't really match the price). I know you had the opportunity to try it on.
Beyond that I'd like to see the Overseas add a 38 or 39 option, I feel there's a gap between the 35 and 41mm. I feel they could probably retire the FiftySix. And I'd like to see VC build upon the Overseas Everest, I really liked the design and feel Vacheron could go more into the adventure/luxury segment
of the signature integrated bracelet sports watches from the holy trinity, the 222 is my favorite. 37mm, but the overall dimensions make it look good on a range of wrists, from mine to Lebron James'.
I agree with your other assessments too, btw. FiftySix never made sense. Overseas 35 is too diminutive, and the 41 is too big.
In short, more refinements to the standard collection, but I'm much more excited about VC than I would've been 12 months ago.
What a year! Congrats on all the success of the newsletter and I enjoy reading it often! Chances of a Unpolished Meetup in 2026?
nino and i ran into each other last night at redbar and talked about doing one earlier next year. but only if tom comes! there are a few other spaces i'd also like to host small events at in '26. and not a concern for you, but i'd love to figure out a way to take the show on the road sometime next year.
I'm not sure if you've discussed this before, but could you talk about your favorite watch bracelets? I find them incredibly interesting and feel they’re a detail that’s often overlooked.
agreed, and i think 2025 was a good year for bracelets. the new Rolex Settimo bracelet, JLC pink gold Reverso mesh bracelet, even the Land-Dweller bracelet. In modern watches, Rolex and Tudor make great bracelets. I can't wait until they let me buy the 5-link bracelet for my BB58. Some of the integrated bracelet watches are very comfortable, even if the entire package is often too big for me—the Royal Oak and Moser Streamliner come to mind. It came up elsewhere, but German manufacturer Staib makes a good modern bracelet. Mark Cho makes a beautiful gold bracelet for Cartiers.
In older watches, Lange Wellendorf bracelets, vintage Gay Freres bracelets, the IWC Mark XII (and others in the Mark Series), some old Piaget bracelets are like art.
My favorite bracelets are probably good vintage beads-of-rice bracelets made by makers like Gay Freres, Montal, etc.
I can't find a ton out there, might be a good subject for a longer article.
[TAG]
Hey Tony! What makes you optimistic about the watch industry for the new year and vice versa… what makes you concerned about the watch industry going into 2026?
i'm optimistic because reality and expectations seem more aligned than in previous years. i mean this both at brands and with clients. (kind of like what I explored in the Geneva auction report last week, link below). perhaps this will cause brands to reconsider the price-to-value they offer. as cpo and secondary becomes more popular, brands will have to reckon with how their watches are perceived on the secondary.
However, it still seems to be the trend that many brands are focused on serving a small, exclusive list of VVICs, which is reason to be pessimistic instead.
https://www.unpolishedwatches.com/p/when-expectations-meet-reality-market
Good design is easy to copy. Complications have become democratized. Finishing seems to be going in the same direction; machine finishing is getting better, and hand finishing is becoming commercialized (“100€ for an interior angle”).
Assuming you agree that this trend is true, what features or traits do you think will set apart the watches enthusiasts truly care about from others? Or will the Baltics, True Norths, Frédérique Constants, and many others sap appreciation the brands they imitate?
I’d love to hear your thoughts, but here are some potential ideas that I have: history/ heritage of the originals, originality of design, advanced/ difficult production processes, communities/ enthusiasm for the brands.
Note: I don’t mean to imply that there is no room for the aforementioned companies, and I would probably buy some of their watches myself. Just that they are examples of brands who have taken elements of coveted watches and offered them at a fraction of the price.
And where the heck is the 80th anniversary limited edition datejust?? Is it really just the land dweller and the book?
I even recall asking Rolex about anniversaries during watches and wonders and they were clear they don’t explicitly celebrate anniversaries. But an anniversary LE is about the most un-Rolex thing I can think of anyway
Where can I get the best vintage watch content, aside from unpolished?
outside of instagram, maybe some youtube channels like wristwatch revival, or hairspring podcast. Sotheby's and some private dealers do a good job with their listings. of course, the ocassional fratello or hodinkee article (I enjoyed recent articles about Roger Dubuis and AP John Shaeffer watches).
anything you've found? Honestly, I don't think there's a ton of high-quality, longer-form, consistent content that's focused on vintage watches.
Eric Wind and Charlie Dunne have had a good podcast going there on Patreon but spacing of their posts are really inconsistent. If it were to be done weekly it would really be a gem. Hairspring is sometimes good but the emphasis is not always on vintage per se
yea i like eric & charlie's, they gave us a bunch of good episodes before geneva auctions and then left us hanging for a month after haha
this is a privileged thing to say, but i learned a lot going to a few auction previews the past year and getting to sit with dealers/collectors and listen to them talk about what they saw while looking at watches. this isn't 'content' per se, but very valuable. Menta has done some YouTube videos like this though
Great year of reading, thank you!
My question would be do you also think the whole FP Journe community borders on a cult(ish)? It is easy to dismiss it as passionate collectors and brand enthusiasts but the intense devotion mixed with the extreme control (to get one at retail or if you did get one at retail the backlash if you want to sell it) seems too extreme in my humble opinion.
yea it's a cult. and auction prices right now are totally irrational.
but i also kinda believe everything's a cult nowadays (link below), and FPJ 'collectors' are simply a more extreme version of behavior we see all over, including in watches
https://www.vox.com/the-gray-area/24133960/america-cult-internet-culture-end-monoculture-communication-tribalism
Fair for sure. Extremely extreme version! But yes. Agreed.
Interesting to read how the secondary market continues to outpace the primary market. Curious about selling watches on the secondary market. What is the best pathway and what can you expect to realize for a gently used watch? Obviously Pateks and some Rolex references will demand a higher price/value, but what about those brands at the middle to lower end of the premium spectrum? Say an IWC pilot's chronograph?
'How to sell a watch,' is the topic of a future article—I get asked this a lot!
In general: Start by shopping around to the big pre-owned players, depending on segment of watch you're trying to sell. Think Analog Shift (Watches of Switzerland), 1916, European Watch Co., Bob's Watches. If you have a relationship with local retailers, they're increasingly willing to take in on trade, too. Players like this usually make the lowest offers, so you can get a sense for your floor. Then, I'd move on to smaller dealers that operate solo or on a small team, who might be able to work with you on an individual basis, or take on consignment. Think Tropical Watch, Wind Vintage, Menta, etc. If all else falls, list directly on eBay or C24.
[TAG]
Why were so many jump hour watches released in 2025?
fascinates me too, i wrote about this a bit a few months ago: https://www.unpolishedwatches.com/p/manufactured-for-the-moment-the-jump
In short: Cartier's popularity; the jump hour is different enough to pop on Instagram (every time I post a jump hour, it goes semi-viral); but also an easy-enough semi-complication (really just a module) that any brand can make and quickly adapt their existing time-only movements.
I missed this article so thanks for flagging!
I was hoping the answer was that a secret Swiss cabal meets in an Alpine cave every 5 years to perform some archaic ritual that determines what they must all make in the coming years.
Ha, was waiting for another round with essentially two questions: (i) Any thoughts about the revival of King Seiko (I bought a SPB279j second hand in 2022 and am super happy)? Would love to see your view on King Seiko, its heritage and how it fits within Seiko and GS. (ii) I remember a short video in Instragram when the Moonswatch hype was real that you referred to old Swatch Chronographs as an alternative hence have been wondering who is the owner of the Moonswatch 1965 you used for the pictures of the canvas straps until I read your Geneva article to learn that's your own purchase - what has made you change your mind about Moonswatch or only this model in particular?
I bought that moonswatch in a moment of weakness at the geneva airport! i do think the 1965 is cool though, the best looking MoonSwatch yet (highly subjective).
The history of King Seiko is fascinating, and curious to see how it'll continue to fit into their portfolio, also interested to see how the wider launch of Credor at Watches & Wonders 2026 will go. Seiko and its various brands and sub-collections are a bit confusing, but King Seiko feels best in the pocket that your SPB279 is in, a faitful heritage-inspired reisssue (kind of like Rolex is to Tudor), since Seiko is mass market and Grand Seiko feels mostly modern (though I love many of the Grand Seiko First 'reissues'). Great buys on the secondary, pricing is a bit confused (read: high) on the primary.
Thanks for a year of good newsletters and I'm looking forward to the next!
I've been thinking about the middle-market, group-owned watchmakers in the tariff era. These guys weren't necessarily offering great values beforehand... Will these watchmakers be able to pass this next round of price hikes onto collectors?
Probably not, as there's no evidence they've been able to pass on the *last* round to clients/collectors. So many watches are available on discount, new, now. If there are more price increases they're just setting up retailers to offer more discounts—whether as an intentional strategy or the hard reality, I don't know. The Reverso Tribute Monoface Small Seconds is one of my favorite modern watches, but I'm also not telling anyone to buy that at full MSRP ($9,600). Hell, I want that new Tudor Ranger Dune, but I'm totally content waiting until it hits the secondary at lower prices. I won't use my anecdotal experience to generalize, but trends/data seem to indicate younger consumers are more interested and comfortable buying secondary luxury more broadly.
That said, as mentioned in other comments, brands are increasingly grappling with the reality that secondary/CPO is growing and is what consumers want, and that's where the potential growth lies. I think pricing strategy will have to collide with that eventually (or at least, I hope).
Thanks for the thoughtful reply-seems like the options to reset pricing are pretty limited, though, no? Some brands can start perpetually discounting, but it feels pretty unseemly for others. That leaves very few choices for a brand like JLC, which is now somehow fully in the Rolex price bracket.
Speaking of secondary markets, I see more and more why Morgan Stanley tracks value retention quarterly. When buyers are telling basically every brand they've taken too much price on new releases, maybe they'll have to listen (eventually!)
This is my subtle request for another 20 Predictions/Rumors article for the new year (sadly no skeletonized yet):
For 2026, do you see any change in pricing practices by the watch companies? With the tariff roll-back, I don't see that resulting in prices coming down and it seems a bit lame to have flat pricing be seen as a "win" for consumers...
ha, i was just looking at this to grade my predictions, about half were right (glass half full).
As for pricing, I'm not sure, but I think more brands and retailers will grapple with the discrepancy between their primary and secondary markets. The secondary market in general is hot and growing, while the primary is not, which means more brands will want to get into secondary/CPO. I'm not sure what that means for pricing strategy. That said, Patek Philippe is reportedly cutting prices with the tariffs ending.
For example, in my podcast episode with Steven Holtzman, he said he's opening a CPO-only Rolex store in Miami in January. I wouldn't be surprised to see similar moves from others.