When you're researching watches why do you begin with the Hairspring podcast? Kidding. What's the last watch that made you change your mind about a view you held? XOXOXOXO -Erik
I always start my 'research' by studying max's latest terrible takes.
Onto your question. I saw a Hajime Asaoka for the first time in person in November, and was deeply impressed. I probably unfairly lumped it in with brands like Naoya Hida or Kikuchi Nakagawa (and have thought about Kurono as 'yet another microbrand'). Interesting movement architecture, nicely finished, and his design sensibility is actually fresh and new, though with obvious historical inspiration. I'm late to the party, but he's a real watchmaker.
Some of Breguet's releases from the last couple months give me hope for a brand that, 6 months ago, I had no hope for.
On the flip side: Dennison watches feel pretty cheap in person.
Love that answer. Asaoka is lovely. Apparently he likes to jumble around his wait list based on the mood that day, that's the only downside. But beautiful work. Noir is top 3 from Japan for me.
I haven't handled Dennison ever but already roasted them as my ugliest watch of 25 in upcoming ep hahah.
Keep up the excellent answers. Your one and only true love, E
My uneducated guess is that many powerful industry folks count the designer as a friend. And so a famous name and retro design made everyone forget it’s a mass produced quartz put together for …maybe $50 ? Chris hall (or KF?) estimated dial cost of 5 dollars.
If I’m wrong, then please give us an explainer on why it could win the 3000 CHF GPHG prize and receive so much love 🤷♂️
Hi Tony—I personally do not purchase watches that exceed a certain price point. An obvious result is that I barely experience watches that you and others (such as Eric Wind or Gustafson write and speak of) firsthand. Do you find that to be the case with most of your audience, or am I in the minority? This fascinates me as the discourse (the substacks and podcasts) around the content (the watches) becomes the actual content.
However, this discourse (to my knowledge) remains largely media– (see a Blog to Watch, Hodinkee, etc.), dealer– (see Hairspring or Wind Vintage), and even watch company–driven (see the Rolex books on the Submariner and Datejust or the Polerouter book). Are there watch history essays or books that are academically rigorous, published by universities such as analogous Art and Architectural History books?
-Pierre Donze's book on Rolex, and other books about the Swiss watch industry, are academic and generally enjoyable (he's a professor).
-David Landes' 'Revolution in Time'
-David Rooney's 'About Time'
-I also enjoy Rebecca Struthers' book, Hands of Time, for similar reasons.
Some of these take a longer historical timeline (back to the invention of water clocks, even), but are interesting. Sometimes the best tidbits I find are in essays or books about adjacent areas of culture—fashion, design, etc.
Your first point is an interesting one and something I think about a lot. Because while I'm lucky and travel to see releases, auctions, etc., the watches I personally buy are not six-figures +, though I do continue to enjoy experiencing and writing about them. The other day, someone made the point to me that newsletters like this, or in-depth books, essays, and research can help with our appreciation of these historical or well-crafted objects which most of us will likely never own, and in turn can even add to our enjoyment of the more accessible watches we buy (since they're part of this story). I hope this is at least somewhat true!
Great comment! Interestingly I've had the feeling of being able to better appreciate certain watches, like the Royal Oak, in the context of watch design, rather than just in the context of luxury where I think most people (including myself) usually see them. Hairspring's deep dive on the RO really made me see it from a design and engineering point of view and deepen my appreciation of it as an object rather than just a status symbol (I mean, it still is that in most corners of the world, but it is also an object of incredibly good design), whether I can ever afford it or not.
But I still also get giddy about a funky Seiko quartz Tuna that's $500. Appreciation at all levels to me is the best part of all this.
You may be in the minority, but I am right there with you. Most of the watches covered are way above my budget but I enjoy reading about them, and Tony’s unique perspective, notwithstanding the lack of “affordability” to use a term currently in the popular lexicon!
i'll take it! i also enjoying reading and learning from others about watches that i'll likely never own. my goal isn't just to see people buying more watches, but also understanding that all these objects are a shared culture and 'ours' to enjoy.
Thank you all for your thoughtful responses. I agree that watches (even ones you can afford, but do not purchase) benefit from being viewed from a certain perspective similar to art and architecture. I will never have a sculpture by Anish Kapoor in my garden or live in a Frank Lloyd Wright home, but still value learning about their work.
That said, two points still keep coming up for me:
1) To really appreciate works of art—such as the aforementioned sculpture, architecture, and watches—it really helps to experience them in person. Most people in Chicago can visit Cloud Gate, tour Oak Park, or walk into the Art Institute. But if you want to see a nice watch in person (and maybe the nicest watch you can see isn't even an important watch) you likely need to go to a place of commerce. This isn’t a critique, just an observation about the infrastructure surrounding watches. (Obviously, there are watch groups but those are not aimed at casual enthusiasts.)
2) Watch enthusiasm versus watch scholarship: to what extent does the latter exist? I think Hairspring and Tony strike a balance, but I am not aware of real academic framework for watch history the way there is for art or architecture. We hear terms like “Art Deco,” “Modern-looking,” and more recently "Brutalist-inspired," but are there clearly defined aesthetic or stylistic periods in watch history? I know you can trace the history of watches through a technological standpoint (and for some such as Rolex, a business standpoint—I'm sure you all have listened to the Acquired episode) but that backseats the question of aesthetics and artistry.
In Tony's GQ article "The Golden Rule of Watch Collecting is Total Bullsh*t," the argument is basically don't buy what you love, buy what you understand. That leads to my final question (and I am really asking): does anyone truly understand watches from an aesthetic, historical, academic perspective—one that isn’t primarily technological or commercial? Or does it ultimately come down to taste (which Tony has also written about well)?
Apologies for my ramblings, m-dashes, and parentheses. And also to be fair, I have not read Tony's recommendations yet (though I have Rebecca Struthers' book on Audible).
Great observations. I won't claim to be able to answer them, except to acknowledge that I think about the same things you're mentioning here. The 'scholarship' question is interesting. Wristwatches as a category, especially as a collectible category, are quite young. I imagine they can be fit into broader trends of fashion, luxury, or industrial design, as you're referencing, having been shaped by Art Deco, Bauhaus, MCM. This also means watches are a somewhat unique blend of all these and could probably be better studied and understood in their own right.
As for your question, I was arguing for a sort of 'internal understanding' in that article. At least acknowledge and accept that your desire and taste are shaped by all sorts of things. I think you're probably right that, more broadly, watches have a long way to go to being properly 'understood,' from a more academic perspective. The history of timekeeping & timekeepers is a fascinating subject. Mass production of watches played a major role in the industrial revolution, etc. And to your point, I'm not sure we really talk about that much. Which is fine, it's a big, heavy subject, and I'd guess that a lot of the times we just want to look at shiny things. But grappling with these ideas can deepen our appreciation for them.
It seems I've answered your rambling with some of my own!
Is this too cliche? What are your hot takes / predictions for new watches in 2026 - product wise and or business wise? What will shock us / what will not? 😉
cliche but i'm not above it. looking at my 2025 predictions, about half were right, so grain of salt here (link to that below).
-I think Rolex will do something big again. Maybe more Ti? Maybe the new calendar (1908?) that some think is coming.
-It's the 50th anniversary of the Nautilus so I have to imagine that comes back, and in steel somehow? (I hope no 'tombstone' dial like the 40th!)
-Feels like Tudor needs a big swing? Maybe we finally get an updated Heritage Chrono? It's technically their 100th anniversary, though Rolex itself is insistent it doesn't celebrate anniversaries.
-Business wise, the secondary market feels very strong while the primary market is struggling except for a few brands and a few models, so I have to think we'll see brands, retailers, etc., continue to figure out how to crack secondary/CPO. In my podcast episode with Steven Holtzman, he said he's opening a CPO-only Rolex store in Miami in January. I wouldn't be surprised to see similar moves from others.
It would be great to see more Ti from the crown. I am not a metallurgist but would a Ti Milgauss make sense?
Oof…yeah not another monstrous 5711. But I’m confident whatever the flavor, the usual suspects will get it. Well, hopefully new non AD CPO stores can make prices make sense vs what you see now.
Love reading the UPW newsletter. Keep up the great work Tony.
I too am an Asaoka fan, and I’m yet to see one in person
What’s the priciest modern watch you’ve owned? Did you get accordingly more satisfaction or joy from it?
Currently, after decades of collecting, my ‘highest horology’ watch is an ancient B. 7037 … but I dream someday of a 50 to 80k watch. Maybe for retirement..?
Where do you perceive that the value/enjoyment vs price curve goes flat? Not talking about vintage , cheers!
I’ve owned a couple of watches with prices in the low 30s, though the most “modern” were from the 2000s. That said, I can enjoy super affordable watches just as much, depending on the situation. The law of diminishing returns definitely holds for watches in my experience.
I remember owning a couple of Cartier CPCP watches when the brand really started to boom in 2018-2021, and when their values doubled i started wearing them less and eventually sold them. They were still $8k watches in my head and I couldn’t wrap my head round them being, say, $20k.
But i assume the “price/value” curve goes flat at different numbers for different people and is a function of wealth/income
nino and i ran into each other last night at redbar and talked about doing one earlier next year. but only if tom comes! there are a few other spaces i'd also like to host small events at in '26. and not a concern for you, but i'd love to figure out a way to take the show on the road sometime next year.
Good design is easy to copy. Complications have become democratized. Finishing seems to be going in the same direction; machine finishing is getting better, and hand finishing is becoming commercialized (“100€ for an interior angle”).
Assuming you agree that this trend is true, what features or traits do you think will set apart the watches enthusiasts truly care about from others? Or will the Baltics, True Norths, Frédérique Constants, and many others sap appreciation the brands they imitate?
I’d love to hear your thoughts, but here are some potential ideas that I have: history/ heritage of the originals, originality of design, advanced/ difficult production processes, communities/ enthusiasm for the brands.
Note: I don’t mean to imply that there is no room for the aforementioned companies, and I would probably buy some of their watches myself. Just that they are examples of brands who have taken elements of coveted watches and offered them at a fraction of the price.
My question would be do you also think the whole FP Journe community borders on a cult(ish)? It is easy to dismiss it as passionate collectors and brand enthusiasts but the intense devotion mixed with the extreme control (to get one at retail or if you did get one at retail the backlash if you want to sell it) seems too extreme in my humble opinion.
yea it's a cult. and auction prices right now are totally irrational.
but i also kinda believe everything's a cult nowadays (link below), and FPJ 'collectors' are simply a more extreme version of behavior we see all over, including in watches
Thanks for a year of good newsletters and I'm looking forward to the next!
I've been thinking about the middle-market, group-owned watchmakers in the tariff era. These guys weren't necessarily offering great values beforehand... Will these watchmakers be able to pass this next round of price hikes onto collectors?
Probably not, as there's no evidence they've been able to pass on the *last* round to clients/collectors. So many watches are available on discount, new, now. If there are more price increases they're just setting up retailers to offer more discounts—whether as an intentional strategy or the hard reality, I don't know. The Reverso Tribute Monoface Small Seconds is one of my favorite modern watches, but I'm also not telling anyone to buy that at full MSRP ($9,600). Hell, I want that new Tudor Ranger Dune, but I'm totally content waiting until it hits the secondary at lower prices. I won't use my anecdotal experience to generalize, but trends/data seem to indicate younger consumers are more interested and comfortable buying secondary luxury more broadly.
That said, as mentioned in other comments, brands are increasingly grappling with the reality that secondary/CPO is growing and is what consumers want, and that's where the potential growth lies. I think pricing strategy will have to collide with that eventually (or at least, I hope).
Thanks for the thoughtful reply-seems like the options to reset pricing are pretty limited, though, no? Some brands can start perpetually discounting, but it feels pretty unseemly for others. That leaves very few choices for a brand like JLC, which is now somehow fully in the Rolex price bracket.
Speaking of secondary markets, I see more and more why Morgan Stanley tracks value retention quarterly. When buyers are telling basically every brand they've taken too much price on new releases, maybe they'll have to listen (eventually!)
If I wanted to explorer Neo vintage or vintage Cartier, what’s the best place to start without breaking the bank? Let’s say sub $15k ideally, where would you start?
This is a good budget to start with. A few options:
I think the neo-vintage CPCP (Collection Privée Cartier Paris), made from 1998-2008 is a great place to start. It's where I started, and these watches are high quality (better than the 1970s watches, which I'll talk about more below). There's a good ACM article I'll link below, too. Check out the classic shapes like the Tank Louis (refs. 1600, 1601), or Santos-Dumont (ref 1575). I think you could also get a time-only Tortue if looking for something larger. Try to get an opportunity to try them on if you haven't, because they are small and thin. These are probably all right towards the top of your budget.
-Most 1970s Cartiers in YG are < $15k. You can get a Tank Louis 78086 (THE classic Tank) all day long for ~$10k. Check out Wes (Collector's Corner NY), Rawad (Huntington Company), Keystone, or others. Many of the other 1970s Louis Cartier collection watches are also under this price (Baignoire), though often harder to find, which also means perhaps harder to sell if you don't mesh with it. I'll link my 1970s Cartier guide below, it's a good place to start for this era.
Finally, pre-1970s Cartier is tricky, probably more than $15k, and probably not the best place to start!
If it’s going to be tough for me to get hands on (not sure where I would find these in the Bay Area), how would how would you recommend I think about sizing? Is there anything in modern catalog from dimensions that are similar? Or any other brands?
Hey Tony! What makes you optimistic about the watch industry for the new year and vice versa… what makes you concerned about the watch industry going into 2026?
i'm optimistic because reality and expectations seem more aligned than in previous years. i mean this both at brands and with clients. (kind of like what I explored in the Geneva auction report last week, link below). perhaps this will cause brands to reconsider the price-to-value they offer. as cpo and secondary becomes more popular, brands will have to reckon with how their watches are perceived on the secondary.
However, it still seems to be the trend that many brands are focused on serving a small, exclusive list of VVICs, which is reason to be pessimistic instead.
Interesting to read how the secondary market continues to outpace the primary market. Curious about selling watches on the secondary market. What is the best pathway and what can you expect to realize for a gently used watch? Obviously Pateks and some Rolex references will demand a higher price/value, but what about those brands at the middle to lower end of the premium spectrum? Say an IWC pilot's chronograph?
'How to sell a watch,' is the topic of a future article—I get asked this a lot!
In general: Start by shopping around to the big pre-owned players, depending on segment of watch you're trying to sell. Think Analog Shift (Watches of Switzerland), 1916, European Watch Co., Bob's Watches. If you have a relationship with local retailers, they're increasingly willing to take in on trade, too. Players like this usually make the lowest offers, so you can get a sense for your floor. Then, I'd move on to smaller dealers that operate solo or on a small team, who might be able to work with you on an individual basis, or take on consignment. Think Tropical Watch, Wind Vintage, Menta, etc. If all else falls, list directly on eBay or C24.
In short: Cartier's popularity; the jump hour is different enough to pop on Instagram (every time I post a jump hour, it goes semi-viral); but also an easy-enough semi-complication (really just a module) that any brand can make and quickly adapt their existing time-only movements.
I was hoping the answer was that a secret Swiss cabal meets in an Alpine cave every 5 years to perform some archaic ritual that determines what they must all make in the coming years.
Ha, was waiting for another round with essentially two questions: (i) Any thoughts about the revival of King Seiko (I bought a SPB279j second hand in 2022 and am super happy)? Would love to see your view on King Seiko, its heritage and how it fits within Seiko and GS. (ii) I remember a short video in Instragram when the Moonswatch hype was real that you referred to old Swatch Chronographs as an alternative hence have been wondering who is the owner of the Moonswatch 1965 you used for the pictures of the canvas straps until I read your Geneva article to learn that's your own purchase - what has made you change your mind about Moonswatch or only this model in particular?
I bought that moonswatch in a moment of weakness at the geneva airport! i do think the 1965 is cool though, the best looking MoonSwatch yet (highly subjective).
The history of King Seiko is fascinating, and curious to see how it'll continue to fit into their portfolio, also interested to see how the wider launch of Credor at Watches & Wonders 2026 will go. Seiko and its various brands and sub-collections are a bit confusing, but King Seiko feels best in the pocket that your SPB279 is in, a faitful heritage-inspired reisssue (kind of like Rolex is to Tudor), since Seiko is mass market and Grand Seiko feels mostly modern (though I love many of the Grand Seiko First 'reissues'). Great buys on the secondary, pricing is a bit confused (read: high) on the primary.
Thanks! Re pricing: I got probably 1k discount to retail price of 1,800€ for a watch, which had been worn for less than half a year. Curious to see how pricing and value will stabilize over the years, if at all
This is my subtle request for another 20 Predictions/Rumors article for the new year (sadly no skeletonized yet):
For 2026, do you see any change in pricing practices by the watch companies? With the tariff roll-back, I don't see that resulting in prices coming down and it seems a bit lame to have flat pricing be seen as a "win" for consumers...
ha, i was just looking at this to grade my predictions, about half were right (glass half full).
As for pricing, I'm not sure, but I think more brands and retailers will grapple with the discrepancy between their primary and secondary markets. The secondary market in general is hot and growing, while the primary is not, which means more brands will want to get into secondary/CPO. I'm not sure what that means for pricing strategy. That said, Patek Philippe is reportedly cutting prices with the tariffs ending.
For example, in my podcast episode with Steven Holtzman, he said he's opening a CPO-only Rolex store in Miami in January. I wouldn't be surprised to see similar moves from others.
Thanks Tony - been loving the site and podcast. I have a question about Favre-Leuba. Now that the brand has been 'relaunched', what are your thoughts on vintage FL pieces? I'm specifically interested in the vintage Deep Blues as there don't seem to be many good examples around (and the re-issue seems to be the flagship of the new brand revival). Do you think these will become more sought after now? Thanks!
Probably not, but they're cool watches, in particular the Deep Blue and Favre-Leuba Bivouac (for me). Favre Leuba is historically very focused on the Indian market and I believe the relaunch is very targeted there, too (I think the ultimate money behind the relaunch comes from an Indian conglomerate), so perhaps some impact there, but probably not much additional brand awareness more broadly.
I have a couple of vintage FLs. The Bivouac is fantastic. I also have a Sea Sky Chrono but that watch is a bit of a hockey puck. So you should probably try on a vintage FL first before buying.
When you're researching watches why do you begin with the Hairspring podcast? Kidding. What's the last watch that made you change your mind about a view you held? XOXOXOXO -Erik
I always start my 'research' by studying max's latest terrible takes.
Onto your question. I saw a Hajime Asaoka for the first time in person in November, and was deeply impressed. I probably unfairly lumped it in with brands like Naoya Hida or Kikuchi Nakagawa (and have thought about Kurono as 'yet another microbrand'). Interesting movement architecture, nicely finished, and his design sensibility is actually fresh and new, though with obvious historical inspiration. I'm late to the party, but he's a real watchmaker.
Some of Breguet's releases from the last couple months give me hope for a brand that, 6 months ago, I had no hope for.
On the flip side: Dennison watches feel pretty cheap in person.
Lol same RE Max.
Love that answer. Asaoka is lovely. Apparently he likes to jumble around his wait list based on the mood that day, that's the only downside. But beautiful work. Noir is top 3 from Japan for me.
I haven't handled Dennison ever but already roasted them as my ugliest watch of 25 in upcoming ep hahah.
Keep up the excellent answers. Your one and only true love, E
Need more Sh*ttalking in podcasts/watch world in general, not a lot more, but more than we generally get. I can't wait for that episode
Dennison watches ARE cheap, aren't they? I don't understand why they've gotten the mainstream "shine" that they have.
haha true
My uneducated guess is that many powerful industry folks count the designer as a friend. And so a famous name and retro design made everyone forget it’s a mass produced quartz put together for …maybe $50 ? Chris hall (or KF?) estimated dial cost of 5 dollars.
If I’m wrong, then please give us an explainer on why it could win the 3000 CHF GPHG prize and receive so much love 🤷♂️
The D1 Milano of dress watches
Hi Tony—I personally do not purchase watches that exceed a certain price point. An obvious result is that I barely experience watches that you and others (such as Eric Wind or Gustafson write and speak of) firsthand. Do you find that to be the case with most of your audience, or am I in the minority? This fascinates me as the discourse (the substacks and podcasts) around the content (the watches) becomes the actual content.
However, this discourse (to my knowledge) remains largely media– (see a Blog to Watch, Hodinkee, etc.), dealer– (see Hairspring or Wind Vintage), and even watch company–driven (see the Rolex books on the Submariner and Datejust or the Polerouter book). Are there watch history essays or books that are academically rigorous, published by universities such as analogous Art and Architectural History books?
A few recs:
-Pierre Donze's book on Rolex, and other books about the Swiss watch industry, are academic and generally enjoyable (he's a professor).
-David Landes' 'Revolution in Time'
-David Rooney's 'About Time'
-I also enjoy Rebecca Struthers' book, Hands of Time, for similar reasons.
Some of these take a longer historical timeline (back to the invention of water clocks, even), but are interesting. Sometimes the best tidbits I find are in essays or books about adjacent areas of culture—fashion, design, etc.
Your first point is an interesting one and something I think about a lot. Because while I'm lucky and travel to see releases, auctions, etc., the watches I personally buy are not six-figures +, though I do continue to enjoy experiencing and writing about them. The other day, someone made the point to me that newsletters like this, or in-depth books, essays, and research can help with our appreciation of these historical or well-crafted objects which most of us will likely never own, and in turn can even add to our enjoyment of the more accessible watches we buy (since they're part of this story). I hope this is at least somewhat true!
Great comment! Interestingly I've had the feeling of being able to better appreciate certain watches, like the Royal Oak, in the context of watch design, rather than just in the context of luxury where I think most people (including myself) usually see them. Hairspring's deep dive on the RO really made me see it from a design and engineering point of view and deepen my appreciation of it as an object rather than just a status symbol (I mean, it still is that in most corners of the world, but it is also an object of incredibly good design), whether I can ever afford it or not.
But I still also get giddy about a funky Seiko quartz Tuna that's $500. Appreciation at all levels to me is the best part of all this.
Lol. I started typing and then scrolled down to see Tony said the same but better :)
You may be in the minority, but I am right there with you. Most of the watches covered are way above my budget but I enjoy reading about them, and Tony’s unique perspective, notwithstanding the lack of “affordability” to use a term currently in the popular lexicon!
i'll take it! i also enjoying reading and learning from others about watches that i'll likely never own. my goal isn't just to see people buying more watches, but also understanding that all these objects are a shared culture and 'ours' to enjoy.
Thank you all for your thoughtful responses. I agree that watches (even ones you can afford, but do not purchase) benefit from being viewed from a certain perspective similar to art and architecture. I will never have a sculpture by Anish Kapoor in my garden or live in a Frank Lloyd Wright home, but still value learning about their work.
That said, two points still keep coming up for me:
1) To really appreciate works of art—such as the aforementioned sculpture, architecture, and watches—it really helps to experience them in person. Most people in Chicago can visit Cloud Gate, tour Oak Park, or walk into the Art Institute. But if you want to see a nice watch in person (and maybe the nicest watch you can see isn't even an important watch) you likely need to go to a place of commerce. This isn’t a critique, just an observation about the infrastructure surrounding watches. (Obviously, there are watch groups but those are not aimed at casual enthusiasts.)
2) Watch enthusiasm versus watch scholarship: to what extent does the latter exist? I think Hairspring and Tony strike a balance, but I am not aware of real academic framework for watch history the way there is for art or architecture. We hear terms like “Art Deco,” “Modern-looking,” and more recently "Brutalist-inspired," but are there clearly defined aesthetic or stylistic periods in watch history? I know you can trace the history of watches through a technological standpoint (and for some such as Rolex, a business standpoint—I'm sure you all have listened to the Acquired episode) but that backseats the question of aesthetics and artistry.
In Tony's GQ article "The Golden Rule of Watch Collecting is Total Bullsh*t," the argument is basically don't buy what you love, buy what you understand. That leads to my final question (and I am really asking): does anyone truly understand watches from an aesthetic, historical, academic perspective—one that isn’t primarily technological or commercial? Or does it ultimately come down to taste (which Tony has also written about well)?
Apologies for my ramblings, m-dashes, and parentheses. And also to be fair, I have not read Tony's recommendations yet (though I have Rebecca Struthers' book on Audible).
Great observations. I won't claim to be able to answer them, except to acknowledge that I think about the same things you're mentioning here. The 'scholarship' question is interesting. Wristwatches as a category, especially as a collectible category, are quite young. I imagine they can be fit into broader trends of fashion, luxury, or industrial design, as you're referencing, having been shaped by Art Deco, Bauhaus, MCM. This also means watches are a somewhat unique blend of all these and could probably be better studied and understood in their own right.
As for your question, I was arguing for a sort of 'internal understanding' in that article. At least acknowledge and accept that your desire and taste are shaped by all sorts of things. I think you're probably right that, more broadly, watches have a long way to go to being properly 'understood,' from a more academic perspective. The history of timekeeping & timekeepers is a fascinating subject. Mass production of watches played a major role in the industrial revolution, etc. And to your point, I'm not sure we really talk about that much. Which is fine, it's a big, heavy subject, and I'd guess that a lot of the times we just want to look at shiny things. But grappling with these ideas can deepen our appreciation for them.
It seems I've answered your rambling with some of my own!
Is this too cliche? What are your hot takes / predictions for new watches in 2026 - product wise and or business wise? What will shock us / what will not? 😉
cliche but i'm not above it. looking at my 2025 predictions, about half were right, so grain of salt here (link to that below).
-I think Rolex will do something big again. Maybe more Ti? Maybe the new calendar (1908?) that some think is coming.
-It's the 50th anniversary of the Nautilus so I have to imagine that comes back, and in steel somehow? (I hope no 'tombstone' dial like the 40th!)
-Feels like Tudor needs a big swing? Maybe we finally get an updated Heritage Chrono? It's technically their 100th anniversary, though Rolex itself is insistent it doesn't celebrate anniversaries.
-Business wise, the secondary market feels very strong while the primary market is struggling except for a few brands and a few models, so I have to think we'll see brands, retailers, etc., continue to figure out how to crack secondary/CPO. In my podcast episode with Steven Holtzman, he said he's opening a CPO-only Rolex store in Miami in January. I wouldn't be surprised to see similar moves from others.
https://www.unpolishedwatches.com/p/20-predictions-and-rumors-for-2025
Thanks for humoring me Tony. 😉
It would be great to see more Ti from the crown. I am not a metallurgist but would a Ti Milgauss make sense?
Oof…yeah not another monstrous 5711. But I’m confident whatever the flavor, the usual suspects will get it. Well, hopefully new non AD CPO stores can make prices make sense vs what you see now.
😱 steel nautilus coming back is quite a hot take!!
Love reading the UPW newsletter. Keep up the great work Tony.
I too am an Asaoka fan, and I’m yet to see one in person
What’s the priciest modern watch you’ve owned? Did you get accordingly more satisfaction or joy from it?
Currently, after decades of collecting, my ‘highest horology’ watch is an ancient B. 7037 … but I dream someday of a 50 to 80k watch. Maybe for retirement..?
Where do you perceive that the value/enjoyment vs price curve goes flat? Not talking about vintage , cheers!
I’ve owned a couple of watches with prices in the low 30s, though the most “modern” were from the 2000s. That said, I can enjoy super affordable watches just as much, depending on the situation. The law of diminishing returns definitely holds for watches in my experience.
I remember owning a couple of Cartier CPCP watches when the brand really started to boom in 2018-2021, and when their values doubled i started wearing them less and eventually sold them. They were still $8k watches in my head and I couldn’t wrap my head round them being, say, $20k.
But i assume the “price/value” curve goes flat at different numbers for different people and is a function of wealth/income
What a year! Congrats on all the success of the newsletter and I enjoy reading it often! Chances of a Unpolished Meetup in 2026?
nino and i ran into each other last night at redbar and talked about doing one earlier next year. but only if tom comes! there are a few other spaces i'd also like to host small events at in '26. and not a concern for you, but i'd love to figure out a way to take the show on the road sometime next year.
If Tony and Nino are going, I'm there.
Good design is easy to copy. Complications have become democratized. Finishing seems to be going in the same direction; machine finishing is getting better, and hand finishing is becoming commercialized (“100€ for an interior angle”).
Assuming you agree that this trend is true, what features or traits do you think will set apart the watches enthusiasts truly care about from others? Or will the Baltics, True Norths, Frédérique Constants, and many others sap appreciation the brands they imitate?
I’d love to hear your thoughts, but here are some potential ideas that I have: history/ heritage of the originals, originality of design, advanced/ difficult production processes, communities/ enthusiasm for the brands.
Note: I don’t mean to imply that there is no room for the aforementioned companies, and I would probably buy some of their watches myself. Just that they are examples of brands who have taken elements of coveted watches and offered them at a fraction of the price.
Great year of reading, thank you!
My question would be do you also think the whole FP Journe community borders on a cult(ish)? It is easy to dismiss it as passionate collectors and brand enthusiasts but the intense devotion mixed with the extreme control (to get one at retail or if you did get one at retail the backlash if you want to sell it) seems too extreme in my humble opinion.
yea it's a cult. and auction prices right now are totally irrational.
but i also kinda believe everything's a cult nowadays (link below), and FPJ 'collectors' are simply a more extreme version of behavior we see all over, including in watches
https://www.vox.com/the-gray-area/24133960/america-cult-internet-culture-end-monoculture-communication-tribalism
Fair for sure. Extremely extreme version! But yes. Agreed.
Thanks for a year of good newsletters and I'm looking forward to the next!
I've been thinking about the middle-market, group-owned watchmakers in the tariff era. These guys weren't necessarily offering great values beforehand... Will these watchmakers be able to pass this next round of price hikes onto collectors?
Probably not, as there's no evidence they've been able to pass on the *last* round to clients/collectors. So many watches are available on discount, new, now. If there are more price increases they're just setting up retailers to offer more discounts—whether as an intentional strategy or the hard reality, I don't know. The Reverso Tribute Monoface Small Seconds is one of my favorite modern watches, but I'm also not telling anyone to buy that at full MSRP ($9,600). Hell, I want that new Tudor Ranger Dune, but I'm totally content waiting until it hits the secondary at lower prices. I won't use my anecdotal experience to generalize, but trends/data seem to indicate younger consumers are more interested and comfortable buying secondary luxury more broadly.
That said, as mentioned in other comments, brands are increasingly grappling with the reality that secondary/CPO is growing and is what consumers want, and that's where the potential growth lies. I think pricing strategy will have to collide with that eventually (or at least, I hope).
Thanks for the thoughtful reply-seems like the options to reset pricing are pretty limited, though, no? Some brands can start perpetually discounting, but it feels pretty unseemly for others. That leaves very few choices for a brand like JLC, which is now somehow fully in the Rolex price bracket.
Speaking of secondary markets, I see more and more why Morgan Stanley tracks value retention quarterly. When buyers are telling basically every brand they've taken too much price on new releases, maybe they'll have to listen (eventually!)
If I wanted to explorer Neo vintage or vintage Cartier, what’s the best place to start without breaking the bank? Let’s say sub $15k ideally, where would you start?
This is a good budget to start with. A few options:
I think the neo-vintage CPCP (Collection Privée Cartier Paris), made from 1998-2008 is a great place to start. It's where I started, and these watches are high quality (better than the 1970s watches, which I'll talk about more below). There's a good ACM article I'll link below, too. Check out the classic shapes like the Tank Louis (refs. 1600, 1601), or Santos-Dumont (ref 1575). I think you could also get a time-only Tortue if looking for something larger. Try to get an opportunity to try them on if you haven't, because they are small and thin. These are probably all right towards the top of your budget.
-Most 1970s Cartiers in YG are < $15k. You can get a Tank Louis 78086 (THE classic Tank) all day long for ~$10k. Check out Wes (Collector's Corner NY), Rawad (Huntington Company), Keystone, or others. Many of the other 1970s Louis Cartier collection watches are also under this price (Baignoire), though often harder to find, which also means perhaps harder to sell if you don't mesh with it. I'll link my 1970s Cartier guide below, it's a good place to start for this era.
Finally, pre-1970s Cartier is tricky, probably more than $15k, and probably not the best place to start!
https://www.acollectedman.com/blogs/journal/collectors-guide-collection-privee-cartier-paris
https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/a-collectors-guide-to-vintage-1970s-cartier-watches
edit to add [TAG] because this is worth a full newsletter.
Thanks, Tony. I knew you were the person to ask!
If it’s going to be tough for me to get hands on (not sure where I would find these in the Bay Area), how would how would you recommend I think about sizing? Is there anything in modern catalog from dimensions that are similar? Or any other brands?
Hey Tony! What makes you optimistic about the watch industry for the new year and vice versa… what makes you concerned about the watch industry going into 2026?
i'm optimistic because reality and expectations seem more aligned than in previous years. i mean this both at brands and with clients. (kind of like what I explored in the Geneva auction report last week, link below). perhaps this will cause brands to reconsider the price-to-value they offer. as cpo and secondary becomes more popular, brands will have to reckon with how their watches are perceived on the secondary.
However, it still seems to be the trend that many brands are focused on serving a small, exclusive list of VVICs, which is reason to be pessimistic instead.
https://www.unpolishedwatches.com/p/when-expectations-meet-reality-market
Interesting to read how the secondary market continues to outpace the primary market. Curious about selling watches on the secondary market. What is the best pathway and what can you expect to realize for a gently used watch? Obviously Pateks and some Rolex references will demand a higher price/value, but what about those brands at the middle to lower end of the premium spectrum? Say an IWC pilot's chronograph?
'How to sell a watch,' is the topic of a future article—I get asked this a lot!
In general: Start by shopping around to the big pre-owned players, depending on segment of watch you're trying to sell. Think Analog Shift (Watches of Switzerland), 1916, European Watch Co., Bob's Watches. If you have a relationship with local retailers, they're increasingly willing to take in on trade, too. Players like this usually make the lowest offers, so you can get a sense for your floor. Then, I'd move on to smaller dealers that operate solo or on a small team, who might be able to work with you on an individual basis, or take on consignment. Think Tropical Watch, Wind Vintage, Menta, etc. If all else falls, list directly on eBay or C24.
[TAG]
Why were so many jump hour watches released in 2025?
fascinates me too, i wrote about this a bit a few months ago: https://www.unpolishedwatches.com/p/manufactured-for-the-moment-the-jump
In short: Cartier's popularity; the jump hour is different enough to pop on Instagram (every time I post a jump hour, it goes semi-viral); but also an easy-enough semi-complication (really just a module) that any brand can make and quickly adapt their existing time-only movements.
I missed this article so thanks for flagging!
I was hoping the answer was that a secret Swiss cabal meets in an Alpine cave every 5 years to perform some archaic ritual that determines what they must all make in the coming years.
Ha, was waiting for another round with essentially two questions: (i) Any thoughts about the revival of King Seiko (I bought a SPB279j second hand in 2022 and am super happy)? Would love to see your view on King Seiko, its heritage and how it fits within Seiko and GS. (ii) I remember a short video in Instragram when the Moonswatch hype was real that you referred to old Swatch Chronographs as an alternative hence have been wondering who is the owner of the Moonswatch 1965 you used for the pictures of the canvas straps until I read your Geneva article to learn that's your own purchase - what has made you change your mind about Moonswatch or only this model in particular?
I bought that moonswatch in a moment of weakness at the geneva airport! i do think the 1965 is cool though, the best looking MoonSwatch yet (highly subjective).
The history of King Seiko is fascinating, and curious to see how it'll continue to fit into their portfolio, also interested to see how the wider launch of Credor at Watches & Wonders 2026 will go. Seiko and its various brands and sub-collections are a bit confusing, but King Seiko feels best in the pocket that your SPB279 is in, a faitful heritage-inspired reisssue (kind of like Rolex is to Tudor), since Seiko is mass market and Grand Seiko feels mostly modern (though I love many of the Grand Seiko First 'reissues'). Great buys on the secondary, pricing is a bit confused (read: high) on the primary.
Thanks! Re pricing: I got probably 1k discount to retail price of 1,800€ for a watch, which had been worn for less than half a year. Curious to see how pricing and value will stabilize over the years, if at all
This is my subtle request for another 20 Predictions/Rumors article for the new year (sadly no skeletonized yet):
For 2026, do you see any change in pricing practices by the watch companies? With the tariff roll-back, I don't see that resulting in prices coming down and it seems a bit lame to have flat pricing be seen as a "win" for consumers...
ha, i was just looking at this to grade my predictions, about half were right (glass half full).
As for pricing, I'm not sure, but I think more brands and retailers will grapple with the discrepancy between their primary and secondary markets. The secondary market in general is hot and growing, while the primary is not, which means more brands will want to get into secondary/CPO. I'm not sure what that means for pricing strategy. That said, Patek Philippe is reportedly cutting prices with the tariffs ending.
For example, in my podcast episode with Steven Holtzman, he said he's opening a CPO-only Rolex store in Miami in January. I wouldn't be surprised to see similar moves from others.
How is one man that sexy?
someone pull adam away from looking in the mirror again!
Thanks Tony - been loving the site and podcast. I have a question about Favre-Leuba. Now that the brand has been 'relaunched', what are your thoughts on vintage FL pieces? I'm specifically interested in the vintage Deep Blues as there don't seem to be many good examples around (and the re-issue seems to be the flagship of the new brand revival). Do you think these will become more sought after now? Thanks!
Probably not, but they're cool watches, in particular the Deep Blue and Favre-Leuba Bivouac (for me). Favre Leuba is historically very focused on the Indian market and I believe the relaunch is very targeted there, too (I think the ultimate money behind the relaunch comes from an Indian conglomerate), so perhaps some impact there, but probably not much additional brand awareness more broadly.
I have a couple of vintage FLs. The Bivouac is fantastic. I also have a Sea Sky Chrono but that watch is a bit of a hockey puck. So you should probably try on a vintage FL first before buying.