Let’s hope people never rediscover vintage Speedmasters. I just picked up a beautiful 105.012 with original crown, pushers, DON bezel and brown/grey dial for a song.
I have to keep reminding myself that, while I could get an allocation from some indie that is trading at 2-4x market, I wouldn't be buying that watch because I like it. It's a continual effort to separate "will this go up?" from "will I adore this piece?"
I'm curious your thoughts on the google air, sure. I've been wearing a fitbit charge on the off wrist, which is subtle but still solidly in "you're wearing two watches" camp. Trying the air now, tell me what I'm supposed to think of it :)
haha i'm 2 days in and still undecided about it. i do like the sleep and workout tracking, though i found myself taking it off when i went to dinner last night because it's still very much there. i've been trying to wear on my right wrist as well as next to my watch on my left wrist.
not sure if it'll stick yet, but got enough questions i'll do a newsletter section in a week or so
Vintage Heuers as Boomer watches - ouch! Mostly ouch, because while I am not young, I also am not a boomer (not even from the same ending decade) and love them, at least on paper as I don’t own any yet. I’ve loved the Skipperera from the moment I saw it, but I certainly can’t afford one. I may get the new glass box version when my bonus hits in a few months. We shall see.
BB58 on a leather strap and my 1978 Seiko Turtle are my go to travel watches. You don’t have to think twice but I’m always pleased to have one on my wrist.
and funny you mention the turtle, i visited with trevor wynn (pare pare podcast) when he was here in chicago last week and he had his seiko turtle as his 'travel watch'!
I somehow missed this piece in my inbox. Apologies.
I'm going to do my usual self and come at it with a different angle... If the watch market is hot right now, collecting is perfectly fine. Why? Price of entry matters less. If you are collecting, you are less price sensitive. When you are speculating or selling, you are extremely price sensitive as any asset can be good, but at the right entry (and exit) price. Elasticity of demand concept.
With that said, it's hard to be a collector right now. Why? Because the same piece you may have wanted 5 months ago may now be 15-20% more (random non-factual numbers) and therefore, you may not have the funds to purchase that piece. I know I've seen significant appreciation on A Lange & Sohne, especially for Zeitwerk and Datograph pieces.
your point is an interesting zag, but i’m not sure i totally agree. i think a good collector is price sensitive to the extent they try to assess a watch for what it is, looking at the fundamental or objective value of the thing in front of them (a quixotic task, to be sure). when that gets out of whack with what the market says, it becomes hard to reasonably buy. meanwhile if speculators see a graph pointing up and to the right, it’s easy enough to jump in and jump out.
It is strange. Much like the stock market, you see *some* similarities to 2021… but it’s also different. Instead of steel sports watches, it’s FPJ, a few other independents, and a subset of vintage.
A lot of overlap in participants (FPJ CB’s and Elegante’s are quite popular with the crypto crowd now)… but also different. I am not sure what ADs are seeing, but it sure feels like the guy who’d be buying Patek Grand Comps has migrated to independents. Like these are not necessarily people who are buying as “investments” but rather guys with a lot of cash using recent price performance to rationalize purchases.
I’ve been eyeing up the Fitbit air myself and would definitely be interested in reading your thoughts on it. It’s the first fitness tracker/wearable that seems reasonably minimalist (I like the concept of the Oura ring but I’m not a ring guy). Hell, if no one else is interested, I’d love for you to just email me your thoughts after wearing it for a while!
this is true, and i would bet that those brands probably have more staying power, though perhaps especially in the case of journe, not at the current levels. cartier is one of the 3 most important watch brands in the world and has certainly seen many cycles :)
Vintage Cartier used to be fun to hunt and collect. Now the astronomical prices from secondary have made it so hard to collect them. I also wonder who are the ones propping those prices?!
cartier was one of the first brands i really got into because it felt undervalued, and the sizes just worked on me better than most vintage rolex. a solid gold Tank Louis was probably the price of what some guys are trying to charge for a Must de Tank nowadays!
I put on my explorer 214270 I've owned for 15 years for dinner tonight after wearing much "higher risk" watches all week — it felt so freeing and a real return to the days when I thought I'd buy only one watch and live in it forever. My wife is also a collector and her everyday beater has been the 36mm two-tone explorer 124273 for the last few years. She also loves crazy PM watches, so I never thought she'd take to the time only 36mm so devoutly, but seeing how much see loves it has really brought us together and it feels so cool to both roll up in Explorers when we go out.
It kinda validates my original idea that this would be the only watch i needed—Even though it was pretty "entry-level" in my watch collecting arc. I'd argue it's low value actually helps this narrative, because the high resell value always tempts me to sell my underworn Pepsi & Daytona and what I could "flip them into" – but this explorer is destroyed and can't possibly be worth what it make me feel. There is a huge dent in the bezel with a matching chip in the sapphire. I doubt it's even eligible as a CPO trade in... and thats why I love it
hahahah i agree -- i included in some newsletter last year that the explorer has the worst "value retention" of the Rolex's sports watch / professional lineup. all the more reason just to wear 'em
Was great to meet with you Tony! Hope to do that again!
As for the market being 'hot' - I always like to look at those pockets of the market that are not so hot. The obscure and unpopular brands and models.
Just today I tried on a 35mm gold-capped vintage Movado and a midcentury Patek Calatrava in the same dealer. And honestly, I found the Movado more beautiful. It's not at the same quality level, but I think it's more beautiful and it's a 30th of the price of the Patek.
So if we look at certain sections of the market, it's definitely not 'too hot'.
P. S. The same dealer was asking more for a tropical dial Gallet Jim Clark than for an 861 Speedmaster in great condition. Just another example of what's hot and what isn't.
i've loved vintage movado for a while :) it's funny, i did that article a couple of weeks ago about what dealers can't sell right now, the speedmaster always comes up
I think the market is more fragmented than it is “hot.” Clearly there are speculative pockets ripe for bursting, but there are also lots of brands and references still hugely off their highs and only nominally above their lows. So, I guess it all depends on what you are shopping for…
100%. i did that article a couple of weeks ago on 'what dealers can't sell right now.' it's always smart to look at the stuff everyone else is ignoring.
Well, I hope the P01 won’t become one of the future classics, never really got used to this model, not sure why. Would rather hope to see Tudor‘s 2010s Heritage Chronos turn out to be a classic. Not that I have ever owned one given they were too bulky, but I feel they deserve the fame given the strong story telling - just remember the video with the couple driving down the coastal streets in Southern Europe in a roadster with Dean Martin’s ‚gentle on my mind’ playing in the background!
that was kind of a joke, i assume tudor volumes are too high to really be collectibles or classics but who knows. but to the extent anything will be, it's usually the early stuff that is, and the early tudors from its 'rebirth' will likely be sought after, namely the heritage chrono you mention and the black bay eta 'smileys'
too hot is exactly right. and it’s not just indies, but everything else is up too. even lange prices have shot up noticeably, several references i adore are now being listed at $20k more than they were a year ago (examples: white-gold daymatic, richard lange jumping seconds, first-gen datos).
this is not good news. anybody who thinks it is good news is not the type of fan who will stick with the brand in the long run. they’ll just cash in on the appreciation and move on to the next pump.
time to step away from the secondary market, i’m not buying a pre-owned watch again until this latest bubble pops and prices flatten at whatever the next low is. there was a great buyers-market for about 24 months, from summer 2023 to summer 2025. and the way things are going, the next buyers-market will probably emerge around summer 2028.
Let’s hope people never rediscover vintage Speedmasters. I just picked up a beautiful 105.012 with original crown, pushers, DON bezel and brown/grey dial for a song.
Agree - just picked up a very special 145.012.
yessss!!
Awesome. Enjoy! The only real difference between the two is the step case back and mine is almost rounded. :-) They’re special watches.
🤫🤫🤫
I have to keep reminding myself that, while I could get an allocation from some indie that is trading at 2-4x market, I wouldn't be buying that watch because I like it. It's a continual effort to separate "will this go up?" from "will I adore this piece?"
a never-ending battle for sure
I'm curious your thoughts on the google air, sure. I've been wearing a fitbit charge on the off wrist, which is subtle but still solidly in "you're wearing two watches" camp. Trying the air now, tell me what I'm supposed to think of it :)
haha i'm 2 days in and still undecided about it. i do like the sleep and workout tracking, though i found myself taking it off when i went to dinner last night because it's still very much there. i've been trying to wear on my right wrist as well as next to my watch on my left wrist.
not sure if it'll stick yet, but got enough questions i'll do a newsletter section in a week or so
Vintage Heuers as Boomer watches - ouch! Mostly ouch, because while I am not young, I also am not a boomer (not even from the same ending decade) and love them, at least on paper as I don’t own any yet. I’ve loved the Skipperera from the moment I saw it, but I certainly can’t afford one. I may get the new glass box version when my bonus hits in a few months. We shall see.
bit of a cheap shot, i like carreras and have owned a handful :)
BB58 on a leather strap and my 1978 Seiko Turtle are my go to travel watches. You don’t have to think twice but I’m always pleased to have one on my wrist.
100% bb58 on strap for me too!
and funny you mention the turtle, i visited with trevor wynn (pare pare podcast) when he was here in chicago last week and he had his seiko turtle as his 'travel watch'!
"...but that doesn’t help much when you’re stuck in a rainstorm."
Somehow already feels like an old proverb the town elders would recite.
lol i wish i had the wisdom of the town elders
I somehow missed this piece in my inbox. Apologies.
I'm going to do my usual self and come at it with a different angle... If the watch market is hot right now, collecting is perfectly fine. Why? Price of entry matters less. If you are collecting, you are less price sensitive. When you are speculating or selling, you are extremely price sensitive as any asset can be good, but at the right entry (and exit) price. Elasticity of demand concept.
With that said, it's hard to be a collector right now. Why? Because the same piece you may have wanted 5 months ago may now be 15-20% more (random non-factual numbers) and therefore, you may not have the funds to purchase that piece. I know I've seen significant appreciation on A Lange & Sohne, especially for Zeitwerk and Datograph pieces.
your point is an interesting zag, but i’m not sure i totally agree. i think a good collector is price sensitive to the extent they try to assess a watch for what it is, looking at the fundamental or objective value of the thing in front of them (a quixotic task, to be sure). when that gets out of whack with what the market says, it becomes hard to reasonably buy. meanwhile if speculators see a graph pointing up and to the right, it’s easy enough to jump in and jump out.
It is strange. Much like the stock market, you see *some* similarities to 2021… but it’s also different. Instead of steel sports watches, it’s FPJ, a few other independents, and a subset of vintage.
A lot of overlap in participants (FPJ CB’s and Elegante’s are quite popular with the crypto crowd now)… but also different. I am not sure what ADs are seeing, but it sure feels like the guy who’d be buying Patek Grand Comps has migrated to independents. Like these are not necessarily people who are buying as “investments” but rather guys with a lot of cash using recent price performance to rationalize purchases.
I’ve been eyeing up the Fitbit air myself and would definitely be interested in reading your thoughts on it. It’s the first fitness tracker/wearable that seems reasonably minimalist (I like the concept of the Oura ring but I’m not a ring guy). Hell, if no one else is interested, I’d love for you to just email me your thoughts after wearing it for a while!
lol! i've gotten enough questions i'll include a section in a future newsletter. and i get you--i tried the aura and returned it after 2 days
Tony, I’d love you to revisit the Cartier article from last week or an older Journe writeup if/when the floor comes out on these watches.
It’s always fascinating to me how much is hype vs. discovery. The speculators can all sell, but nobody is ever going to un-learn about CPCP, right?
this is true, and i would bet that those brands probably have more staying power, though perhaps especially in the case of journe, not at the current levels. cartier is one of the 3 most important watch brands in the world and has certainly seen many cycles :)
Vintage Cartier used to be fun to hunt and collect. Now the astronomical prices from secondary have made it so hard to collect them. I also wonder who are the ones propping those prices?!
cartier was one of the first brands i really got into because it felt undervalued, and the sizes just worked on me better than most vintage rolex. a solid gold Tank Louis was probably the price of what some guys are trying to charge for a Must de Tank nowadays!
Relating to the Explorer comment:
I put on my explorer 214270 I've owned for 15 years for dinner tonight after wearing much "higher risk" watches all week — it felt so freeing and a real return to the days when I thought I'd buy only one watch and live in it forever. My wife is also a collector and her everyday beater has been the 36mm two-tone explorer 124273 for the last few years. She also loves crazy PM watches, so I never thought she'd take to the time only 36mm so devoutly, but seeing how much see loves it has really brought us together and it feels so cool to both roll up in Explorers when we go out.
It kinda validates my original idea that this would be the only watch i needed—Even though it was pretty "entry-level" in my watch collecting arc. I'd argue it's low value actually helps this narrative, because the high resell value always tempts me to sell my underworn Pepsi & Daytona and what I could "flip them into" – but this explorer is destroyed and can't possibly be worth what it make me feel. There is a huge dent in the bezel with a matching chip in the sapphire. I doubt it's even eligible as a CPO trade in... and thats why I love it
hahahah i agree -- i included in some newsletter last year that the explorer has the worst "value retention" of the Rolex's sports watch / professional lineup. all the more reason just to wear 'em
Was great to meet with you Tony! Hope to do that again!
As for the market being 'hot' - I always like to look at those pockets of the market that are not so hot. The obscure and unpopular brands and models.
Just today I tried on a 35mm gold-capped vintage Movado and a midcentury Patek Calatrava in the same dealer. And honestly, I found the Movado more beautiful. It's not at the same quality level, but I think it's more beautiful and it's a 30th of the price of the Patek.
So if we look at certain sections of the market, it's definitely not 'too hot'.
P. S. The same dealer was asking more for a tropical dial Gallet Jim Clark than for an 861 Speedmaster in great condition. Just another example of what's hot and what isn't.
i've loved vintage movado for a while :) it's funny, i did that article a couple of weeks ago about what dealers can't sell right now, the speedmaster always comes up
https://www.unpolishedwatches.com/p/what-dealers-cant-sell-right-now
I think the market is more fragmented than it is “hot.” Clearly there are speculative pockets ripe for bursting, but there are also lots of brands and references still hugely off their highs and only nominally above their lows. So, I guess it all depends on what you are shopping for…
100%. i did that article a couple of weeks ago on 'what dealers can't sell right now.' it's always smart to look at the stuff everyone else is ignoring.
https://www.unpolishedwatches.com/p/what-dealers-cant-sell-right-now
Well, I hope the P01 won’t become one of the future classics, never really got used to this model, not sure why. Would rather hope to see Tudor‘s 2010s Heritage Chronos turn out to be a classic. Not that I have ever owned one given they were too bulky, but I feel they deserve the fame given the strong story telling - just remember the video with the couple driving down the coastal streets in Southern Europe in a roadster with Dean Martin’s ‚gentle on my mind’ playing in the background!
that was kind of a joke, i assume tudor volumes are too high to really be collectibles or classics but who knows. but to the extent anything will be, it's usually the early stuff that is, and the early tudors from its 'rebirth' will likely be sought after, namely the heritage chrono you mention and the black bay eta 'smileys'
too hot is exactly right. and it’s not just indies, but everything else is up too. even lange prices have shot up noticeably, several references i adore are now being listed at $20k more than they were a year ago (examples: white-gold daymatic, richard lange jumping seconds, first-gen datos).
this is not good news. anybody who thinks it is good news is not the type of fan who will stick with the brand in the long run. they’ll just cash in on the appreciation and move on to the next pump.
time to step away from the secondary market, i’m not buying a pre-owned watch again until this latest bubble pops and prices flatten at whatever the next low is. there was a great buyers-market for about 24 months, from summer 2023 to summer 2025. and the way things are going, the next buyers-market will probably emerge around summer 2028.