I enjoyed the perspective on the roles and positioning of the different auction houses, but I couldn’t reconcile it with the headline of “a crisis that will redefine the line of the watch market”. I can see why it might be coming, as value has become completely misaligned with the means of an averagely well-to-do customer (tho has that ever really been the core customer of high end horology?), but I got no sense of that from the description of each auction house. Ultimately I’m left wondering what is not being said in this newsletter.
fair enough, someone else made a similar comment to me privately. my conversation with this other collector centered around the fact that results were still quite strong for special watches (rare, really strong condition, seemingly any Journe, etc.). there's plenty of money being thrown around for the "right" watch.
But, auction houses need to position themselves and have a real value prop. E.g., Sotheby's can't just trot out a rare, platinum Zenith Daytona and hope the buyers come, which perhaps they could've done 2 years ago when they sold one for $3.2m. perhaps starting out with "crisis" was a bit strong!
I'm certainly no auction professional (and obviously don't speak for Astrid), so this is all just my $.02.
Love the coverage of auctions both lead up and after the results are in. There were some great deals but between the 10% decline of the USD against CHF and the 10% tariffs all in it it's a tougher environment for US bidders. I will be curious to hear if the HKG and NYC auctions have a different vibe.
agree, as i scrolled results i kept thinking "that's a good price" (esp. at AQ, and in certain segments, e.g. Lange) but when you added tariffs, FX, taxes, etc., it was...not quite as good.
Sent you an email. Interested in writing stories about losing and finding spring bars, and possibly ourselves, while changing straps while undertaking a watch collecting journey of discovery. I also enjoy writing about mixed metaphors
what happens to the aspirational consumer when he’s told repeatedly, for the better part of a decade, that nothing he aspires to will be offered to him? he becomes the vengeful consumer.
the vengeful consumer has no goodwill for anyone, he thinks of nobody but himself. the vengeful consumer doesn’t just want the watches he once aspired to, he wants his pound of flesh.
and people are taking notice, i heard a dealer ask recently if the vengeful consumer can be rehabilitated. wrong question to ask. ask instead how you can be rehabilitated in the eyes of the vengeful consumer, so he may spare you his wrath.
Great newsletter - really enjoyed a different perspective on things
I enjoyed the perspective on the roles and positioning of the different auction houses, but I couldn’t reconcile it with the headline of “a crisis that will redefine the line of the watch market”. I can see why it might be coming, as value has become completely misaligned with the means of an averagely well-to-do customer (tho has that ever really been the core customer of high end horology?), but I got no sense of that from the description of each auction house. Ultimately I’m left wondering what is not being said in this newsletter.
fair enough, someone else made a similar comment to me privately. my conversation with this other collector centered around the fact that results were still quite strong for special watches (rare, really strong condition, seemingly any Journe, etc.). there's plenty of money being thrown around for the "right" watch.
But, auction houses need to position themselves and have a real value prop. E.g., Sotheby's can't just trot out a rare, platinum Zenith Daytona and hope the buyers come, which perhaps they could've done 2 years ago when they sold one for $3.2m. perhaps starting out with "crisis" was a bit strong!
I'm certainly no auction professional (and obviously don't speak for Astrid), so this is all just my $.02.
Love the coverage of auctions both lead up and after the results are in. There were some great deals but between the 10% decline of the USD against CHF and the 10% tariffs all in it it's a tougher environment for US bidders. I will be curious to hear if the HKG and NYC auctions have a different vibe.
agree, as i scrolled results i kept thinking "that's a good price" (esp. at AQ, and in certain segments, e.g. Lange) but when you added tariffs, FX, taxes, etc., it was...not quite as good.
Sent you an email. Interested in writing stories about losing and finding spring bars, and possibly ourselves, while changing straps while undertaking a watch collecting journey of discovery. I also enjoy writing about mixed metaphors
what happens to the aspirational consumer when he’s told repeatedly, for the better part of a decade, that nothing he aspires to will be offered to him? he becomes the vengeful consumer.
the vengeful consumer has no goodwill for anyone, he thinks of nobody but himself. the vengeful consumer doesn’t just want the watches he once aspired to, he wants his pound of flesh.
and people are taking notice, i heard a dealer ask recently if the vengeful consumer can be rehabilitated. wrong question to ask. ask instead how you can be rehabilitated in the eyes of the vengeful consumer, so he may spare you his wrath.
true!