-Large brands that seem on the right side of the fence in investing in product vs. marketing: Nomos, Rolex, Longines, Tudor, Chopard L.U.C. (Lange, but recent price increases are tough)
-Small modern brands that, while they outsource much or all of their production, have considered design and seem to invest in products with enduring quality: Unimatic, Merci, AnOrdain, Furlan Marri, Marin Instruments, Lorca.
-Affordable vintage brands (beyond the obvious) that I'm always hunting: (TAG) Heuer, Eterna, Mido, Movado, Wittnauer, "poor man's" Heuers, LeCoultre, Gallet, military watches from Hamilton, Benrus, and others, old house brands for retailers like Le Gant or Tradition (Sears). So many more!
-Straps: Also, find a craftperson making cool or custom straps. It's a great way to exercise many of same the muscles as in watch collecting, without the bill.
*None of these lists are near exhaustive, simply examples, seeds of an idea!
yes prices are mostly insane, with 99% of the new product on sale, you just don’t get what you paid for.
the solution is simple, stop buying 99% of the new product on sale. hold on to your money till the prices come down.
consumers have all the agency, this is just a hobby for us. if we go a year without buying a single watch, our lives will still go on as normal. but if no one buys a watch for a year, the industry will not survive. that gives us all the power, they work for us, if we let them.
all we have to do now is play hard to get, and watch them trip over their own feet trying to woo us.
Great read Tony! Gotta take things slow and deliberate in this hobby. Know the watches, the people, the stories! Makes the hobby that much more engaging!
1) I had to trim down my collection and replace watches with those in lower price bracket. It made me really think hard on how I spend my money. It distilled my taste and makes me more happy with my not obvious choices e.g. VC Harmony from the 80s in steel and gold with quartz movement. I love it and reasonable pricing too. It pushes you to new ideas.
2) on visiting auction previews: I visited Geneva auction weekend for the first time and it’s a game changer! It taught me so much about quality difference, how the watch feels on the wrist and that Dufour is great but I’d prefer VC Mercator ;) hot take here
(1) is well said. I think the development of taste and what's important to each collector is a fascinating space for further exploration (for this newsletter and just generally).
(2) Awesome to hear. And that's interesting to hear. In person is the best way to understand what matters and what doesn't. When you find something that *matters* to you and not others, it's usually a good place to find value.
Watch prices are just a reflection of our society and the massive wealth disparity that we forget about sometimes until it suddenly pops up in our lives and gets in our face. Ultra wealthy aren't chasing Ferraris and Lamborghinis, they are going for Bugattis, Zondas, and Koengiseggs while normies fight over Porsche 911 allocations that get ever more expensive. In the watch hobby too while regular people are contorting themselves for Rolexes Mr Wonderful has his assistants reaching out to every indy watchmaker and adding them to his itinerary along with a bag of money for his next trip to Geneva.
I don't know that we can fault brands for leaning into the yacht and private jet demographic and sadly we all should get used to it because there's no sign of this trend changing until society is ready to eat the rich. Until then I do think we are seeing a generational reordering of the luxury hierarchy in all categories. The moat of legacy, history, and provenance is getting bridged by new brands that are born from day one to cater to the ultra wealthy and arent weighed down selling calatravas and offshores to grubby aspirational customers stopping by the boutique the next time they're at the mall with the kids. Biver, Urban Jurgensen, part of the brand value is not having a sub $100k "entry level" watch normies could save their pennies for. Even Lambert touted JLC's performance in the over $100k price point while trying to convince us of "trickle down" watchmaking for the under $50k crowd, he knows what all the other brands know, the only question is whether this is for profit or just survival.
I agree, and this is a great comment. I wonder about the long-term sustainability of the focus on UHNW individuals, and whether some of the new brands you mention will stay in that lane for the long term or seek to expand.
I've mentioned "Deluxe" before, it's one of my favorite books about the growth of the luxury industry and its focus on lower-quality goods for aspirational consumers. But, it was published in 2008 and it is interesting how some of that has changed. For how long, I'm not sure.
Same, I look forward to seeing how this plays out. We've seen such a long expansion period for luxury I think we forget sometimes that traditionally luxury was a risky market, the brands were subject to the general vibe of the economy and luxury spend used to be the first thing to shrink in tough times. The crapification of luxury to bring in aspirational volume was in part to help manage risk by broadening out the customer base and product mix. LVMH for example looks at market share by region as much as growth because traditionally luxury was subject to the prevailing economic times so real brand performance could be better quantified not by topline but relative performance against other luxury brands in what was basically a fixed basket of spend by a limited set of hnw customers.
However, the expansion of the uhnw crowd has created a large enough customer group that is above economic volitility that they are the new safe haven. Fly above the storm, Hermes contnues to grow while LV and Channel struggle. Perhaps when Deluxe was published the aspirational market was still growing, now it's a knife fight with new dtc and niche brands popping up everyday fighting for share in a saturated segment. That said, I too question the long term sustainability of these brands, their singular focus on the top end customer today means they aren't doing anything for the next gen customer tomorrow and the top of the mountain is getting crowded fast.
Absolute banger of an article. One of the most lucid and well crafted pieces of writing we could’ve gotten.
From watches to straps I very much agree with the fact that we should buy what we see and feel are genuinely *worthy*. Not only based on the narratives that brands push, but also taking in consideration what happened to the market in the last 5 years — we’ve grown accustomed to paying more and getting less.
I say this as a H. Moser owner for instance. Rose gold, beautiful sculpted case, gold chatons on the movement: about the price of a cermit. They are two different things, sure, but they do compete for the same money. Sitting on the slot next to the Moser is a Baltic prismic stone; good quality has to be unnegotiable.
I think it’s utterly important to trust what our eyes see and what our wrists feel rather than taking trends as universal truths.
I don't think prices are insane for preowned and vintage outside of perfect examples at auction. I'd say it's time to slay dragons and mount them on the wall (or wrist) while you can. But great article, you can feel the love of the watch hunting game
as i mentioned, i do think it's a buyer's market in vintage and pre-owned, the best we've had in a while. strong advocate for buying so many watches right now—vintage Speedies, pre-owned Lange, etc. that said, if you take the long view, it's still much more expensive than a decade ago to get into watches (ofc this is obvious to say).
I feel you. I’m not that excited to go into ADs and boutiques these days which is kinda sad. On the plus side, it’s a golden era if you want to walk in and buy a ladies’ datejust!
i was looking at the sale at Les Ambassadeurs, the Swiss retailer, they've been advertising...tbh none of the stuff they carry is super compelling, even at a 30% discount.
The hardest piece of advice in all this great advice is “you don’t need them all”. I started collecting CWCs as they seemed like a nice, affordable way to collect military watches. As the addiction grew, it became a “need” to have an example of every single variation from every single year from every single contract between 1973 and 2008. 10 years and almost 300 wrist watches, pocket watches, stop watches and clocks later - and I’m still hunting for those last 12 pieces I still “need”. Collectors. We gotta collect.
In speaking with Adam Hamblar of The Polerouter Reference Wesite fame, he offered this. I asked him why learning the minutia of every single reference and variation of the Polerouter was his chosen hobby. He said “ it could of been anything. I am a collector”. He chose wisely! Hahaha
Great article, Tony. I find that focusing on watches that really speak to me, rather than what is hot for the moment, is a satisfying pursuit. I also tend to sidestep rarity as a big factor, as rarity seems to obscure value. I'm certainly not buying watches to re-sell, which also removes any pressure about trying to determine which watches may go up in value.
The corrosive undercurrent of money is a hard one to fight in collecting. I think it’s why collectors will give an implicit pass to dealer profiteering, but reject that scalpers can be enthusiasts.
Perhaps that’s why we implicitly distrust Zuckerberg as a collector. Much has been said about what’s “wrong” with his collection, but mostly the problem is that it’s perfect. Too perfect for anyone to believe there’s no ulterior motive to his collection philosophy…
I’d add one umbrella piece of advice: ultimately, the only way to avoid a commodity watch is to buy one that isn’t mass-produced.
i'll find out. it's funny you mention straps, I was going to add another tip: Support craftspeople making amazing straps. There are many, and it's a cool, more affordable way to exercise some of same the muscles as in watch collecting.
Yeah I agree. My watch collection has sorta reached critical mass, but i still enjoy going to meetups, talking about watches that I am motivated to buy but wont end up buying, and collecting accessories. Lots of very nice watch accessories are not super expensive.
The Nomos doesn’t have that big fabric keeper (Archer is two smaller ones, not the RAF style either) but it is close. Those are really good and a 20 Nomos easily fills 21. I know because I have an 18 and it almost does 20 and 18 is really hard because of the sewed ends. Plus they make a size small.
And you -definitely- need to try on a Royal Oak. I really struggled to find a good fit, ultimately paying an ungodly amount for a 1.5 link, and still didn’t love it. But disagree about one point: You definitely do need a Speedmaster. ;-)
-Large brands that seem on the right side of the fence in investing in product vs. marketing: Nomos, Rolex, Longines, Tudor, Chopard L.U.C. (Lange, but recent price increases are tough)
-Small modern brands that, while they outsource much or all of their production, have considered design and seem to invest in products with enduring quality: Unimatic, Merci, AnOrdain, Furlan Marri, Marin Instruments, Lorca.
-Affordable vintage brands (beyond the obvious) that I'm always hunting: (TAG) Heuer, Eterna, Mido, Movado, Wittnauer, "poor man's" Heuers, LeCoultre, Gallet, military watches from Hamilton, Benrus, and others, old house brands for retailers like Le Gant or Tradition (Sears). So many more!
-Straps: Also, find a craftperson making cool or custom straps. It's a great way to exercise many of same the muscles as in watch collecting, without the bill.
*None of these lists are near exhaustive, simply examples, seeds of an idea!
yes prices are mostly insane, with 99% of the new product on sale, you just don’t get what you paid for.
the solution is simple, stop buying 99% of the new product on sale. hold on to your money till the prices come down.
consumers have all the agency, this is just a hobby for us. if we go a year without buying a single watch, our lives will still go on as normal. but if no one buys a watch for a year, the industry will not survive. that gives us all the power, they work for us, if we let them.
all we have to do now is play hard to get, and watch them trip over their own feet trying to woo us.
i love to be wooed!
Great read Tony! Gotta take things slow and deliberate in this hobby. Know the watches, the people, the stories! Makes the hobby that much more engaging!
I fully agree with your post:
1) I had to trim down my collection and replace watches with those in lower price bracket. It made me really think hard on how I spend my money. It distilled my taste and makes me more happy with my not obvious choices e.g. VC Harmony from the 80s in steel and gold with quartz movement. I love it and reasonable pricing too. It pushes you to new ideas.
2) on visiting auction previews: I visited Geneva auction weekend for the first time and it’s a game changer! It taught me so much about quality difference, how the watch feels on the wrist and that Dufour is great but I’d prefer VC Mercator ;) hot take here
(1) is well said. I think the development of taste and what's important to each collector is a fascinating space for further exploration (for this newsletter and just generally).
(2) Awesome to hear. And that's interesting to hear. In person is the best way to understand what matters and what doesn't. When you find something that *matters* to you and not others, it's usually a good place to find value.
Watch prices are just a reflection of our society and the massive wealth disparity that we forget about sometimes until it suddenly pops up in our lives and gets in our face. Ultra wealthy aren't chasing Ferraris and Lamborghinis, they are going for Bugattis, Zondas, and Koengiseggs while normies fight over Porsche 911 allocations that get ever more expensive. In the watch hobby too while regular people are contorting themselves for Rolexes Mr Wonderful has his assistants reaching out to every indy watchmaker and adding them to his itinerary along with a bag of money for his next trip to Geneva.
I don't know that we can fault brands for leaning into the yacht and private jet demographic and sadly we all should get used to it because there's no sign of this trend changing until society is ready to eat the rich. Until then I do think we are seeing a generational reordering of the luxury hierarchy in all categories. The moat of legacy, history, and provenance is getting bridged by new brands that are born from day one to cater to the ultra wealthy and arent weighed down selling calatravas and offshores to grubby aspirational customers stopping by the boutique the next time they're at the mall with the kids. Biver, Urban Jurgensen, part of the brand value is not having a sub $100k "entry level" watch normies could save their pennies for. Even Lambert touted JLC's performance in the over $100k price point while trying to convince us of "trickle down" watchmaking for the under $50k crowd, he knows what all the other brands know, the only question is whether this is for profit or just survival.
I agree, and this is a great comment. I wonder about the long-term sustainability of the focus on UHNW individuals, and whether some of the new brands you mention will stay in that lane for the long term or seek to expand.
I've mentioned "Deluxe" before, it's one of my favorite books about the growth of the luxury industry and its focus on lower-quality goods for aspirational consumers. But, it was published in 2008 and it is interesting how some of that has changed. For how long, I'm not sure.
Same, I look forward to seeing how this plays out. We've seen such a long expansion period for luxury I think we forget sometimes that traditionally luxury was a risky market, the brands were subject to the general vibe of the economy and luxury spend used to be the first thing to shrink in tough times. The crapification of luxury to bring in aspirational volume was in part to help manage risk by broadening out the customer base and product mix. LVMH for example looks at market share by region as much as growth because traditionally luxury was subject to the prevailing economic times so real brand performance could be better quantified not by topline but relative performance against other luxury brands in what was basically a fixed basket of spend by a limited set of hnw customers.
However, the expansion of the uhnw crowd has created a large enough customer group that is above economic volitility that they are the new safe haven. Fly above the storm, Hermes contnues to grow while LV and Channel struggle. Perhaps when Deluxe was published the aspirational market was still growing, now it's a knife fight with new dtc and niche brands popping up everyday fighting for share in a saturated segment. That said, I too question the long term sustainability of these brands, their singular focus on the top end customer today means they aren't doing anything for the next gen customer tomorrow and the top of the mountain is getting crowded fast.
I just bought a copy of Magical Art of Cartier on the basis of this article!
always pulling mine off my bookshelf!
Absolute banger of an article. One of the most lucid and well crafted pieces of writing we could’ve gotten.
From watches to straps I very much agree with the fact that we should buy what we see and feel are genuinely *worthy*. Not only based on the narratives that brands push, but also taking in consideration what happened to the market in the last 5 years — we’ve grown accustomed to paying more and getting less.
I say this as a H. Moser owner for instance. Rose gold, beautiful sculpted case, gold chatons on the movement: about the price of a cermit. They are two different things, sure, but they do compete for the same money. Sitting on the slot next to the Moser is a Baltic prismic stone; good quality has to be unnegotiable.
I think it’s utterly important to trust what our eyes see and what our wrists feel rather than taking trends as universal truths.
Tony - any chance of a primer on how to understand watch auctions like the Christies one you shared?
How do you decipher a good deal?
How much can you trust quality and legitimacy?
Can you count on condition info?
Are there ways to see in person?
Etc.
It seems like a promising avenue for collecting, but one I’m intimidated to step into!
This is a common request. A big endeavor to really get it right, but yes, we’ll tackle this soon enough!
Sounds excellent!
I don't think prices are insane for preowned and vintage outside of perfect examples at auction. I'd say it's time to slay dragons and mount them on the wall (or wrist) while you can. But great article, you can feel the love of the watch hunting game
as i mentioned, i do think it's a buyer's market in vintage and pre-owned, the best we've had in a while. strong advocate for buying so many watches right now—vintage Speedies, pre-owned Lange, etc. that said, if you take the long view, it's still much more expensive than a decade ago to get into watches (ofc this is obvious to say).
I feel you. I’m not that excited to go into ADs and boutiques these days which is kinda sad. On the plus side, it’s a golden era if you want to walk in and buy a ladies’ datejust!
i was looking at the sale at Les Ambassadeurs, the Swiss retailer, they've been advertising...tbh none of the stuff they carry is super compelling, even at a 30% discount.
Since my birth, I have never owned a Blancpain flying tourbillon and even with a significant discount, I never will!!
The hardest piece of advice in all this great advice is “you don’t need them all”. I started collecting CWCs as they seemed like a nice, affordable way to collect military watches. As the addiction grew, it became a “need” to have an example of every single variation from every single year from every single contract between 1973 and 2008. 10 years and almost 300 wrist watches, pocket watches, stop watches and clocks later - and I’m still hunting for those last 12 pieces I still “need”. Collectors. We gotta collect.
In speaking with Adam Hamblar of The Polerouter Reference Wesite fame, he offered this. I asked him why learning the minutia of every single reference and variation of the Polerouter was his chosen hobby. He said “ it could of been anything. I am a collector”. He chose wisely! Hahaha
It’s very true - collectors gotta collect! It’s the collecting that’s important, the collection is just the outlet for the collecting.
Actually looking back the advice was “you can’t have them all”. 🤣. You may need them, but you can’t have them.
Great article, Tony. I find that focusing on watches that really speak to me, rather than what is hot for the moment, is a satisfying pursuit. I also tend to sidestep rarity as a big factor, as rarity seems to obscure value. I'm certainly not buying watches to re-sell, which also removes any pressure about trying to determine which watches may go up in value.
totally agree; i've written before that i think rarity is overrated!
https://www.unpolishedwatches.com/p/rarity-is-overrated
True, I have Sears Stellaris Diver that I doubt many have seen or have. Not worth much alas, but still fun.
The corrosive undercurrent of money is a hard one to fight in collecting. I think it’s why collectors will give an implicit pass to dealer profiteering, but reject that scalpers can be enthusiasts.
Perhaps that’s why we implicitly distrust Zuckerberg as a collector. Much has been said about what’s “wrong” with his collection, but mostly the problem is that it’s perfect. Too perfect for anyone to believe there’s no ulterior motive to his collection philosophy…
I’d add one umbrella piece of advice: ultimately, the only way to avoid a commodity watch is to buy one that isn’t mass-produced.
Trying on and handling watches is in my opinion the single best advice for anyone collecting/buying watches.
Also: straps, as you mentioned in a separate comment. Many times a new strap made me reconsider selling a watch!
Awesome article - I've been asking everyone (speaking of high watch prices). Who makes the strap for the standout 570 from this weekend's auctions: https://www.phillips.com/detail/patek-philippe/219063 ?
i'll find out. it's funny you mention straps, I was going to add another tip: Support craftspeople making amazing straps. There are many, and it's a cool, more affordable way to exercise some of same the muscles as in watch collecting.
Yeah I agree. My watch collection has sorta reached critical mass, but i still enjoy going to meetups, talking about watches that I am motivated to buy but wont end up buying, and collecting accessories. Lots of very nice watch accessories are not super expensive.
Looks almost identical to an “Archer Premium nylon.” $30. 🤣
I’m hoping it’s something like that - but custom - I want to put it on a 21mm watch - if also reminds me of the nomos straps
The Nomos doesn’t have that big fabric keeper (Archer is two smaller ones, not the RAF style either) but it is close. Those are really good and a 20 Nomos easily fills 21. I know because I have an 18 and it almost does 20 and 18 is really hard because of the sewed ends. Plus they make a size small.
those nomos textiles is what i immediately though of, but those are $100
i was told it's an old / "vintage" strap
TIL they had those kind of straps back then.
Great grounding wisdom.
And you -definitely- need to try on a Royal Oak. I really struggled to find a good fit, ultimately paying an ungodly amount for a 1.5 link, and still didn’t love it. But disagree about one point: You definitely do need a Speedmaster. ;-)
deliberately provocative!
😂