12 Predictions and Rumors for 2026
A Tudor and Rolex Oyster Centennial, the private-everything era of collecting, and the CPO takeover.
Happy New Year. No newsletter this weekend, back next week. As a reminder, become a Founding Member to get (1) a free strap from the Unpolished Store, plus (2) a copy of the 2025 Unpolished Rewind Magazine—a physical mag with the best photos and writing from the newsletter this year, in addition to all the other perks of a subscription. It’s a solid deal for $199—upgrade or manage your subscription here.
🥵 The best thing I had on my wrist this year? That’s what Esquire UK asked for this year-end roundup. I chose this Tudor Oyster Prince from the British North Greenland Expedition, but it was fun to think about some other highlights. Here are a few:
👩❤️💋👩 “My play date with the watch nerds.” New York Magazine’s report from Geoff Hess’ Rolliefest: “A watch guy is likely to collect cars, too, another phallic substitute to whip out at the grand urinal of comparative wealth.” For the record: I’m not a car guy! Here’s my photo report from Rolliefest.
🧐 Chanel takes a stake in Kross Studio. I haven’t seen anyone mention that Chanel took a minority stake in Kross Studio, adding to its portfolio of watch investments that includes Journe, MB&F, and Bell & Ross. Impressive for a brand founded in 2020—it seems to fit with Chanel’s strategy of not just buying brands, but the supply chain of the future.
I love nothing more than waking up to a flurry of notifications from 2 a.m. the night before, telling me someone recently discovered the Unpolished archive online. Check it out while whiling away the hours during the time vortex that is the week surrounding Christmas and New Year’s.
About half of my 2025 predictions were right.
In January, I made a bunch of predictions about what 2025 would bring. It was a big anniversary year—Vacheron Constantin, Breguet, Audemars Piguet, and MB&F all had celebrations. For the most part, they delivered. There aren’t many big anniversaries in 2026—the Nautilus turns 50, and Patek Philippe will have its Grand Exhibition in Milan in October. Tudor and the Rolex Oyster both turn 100, though the house of Hans says it doesn’t explicitly celebrate anniversaries. Last month, Breguet was keen to remind us that the tourbillon celebrates its 225th anniversary in 2025—expect an Experimentale 2.
Before we get to 2026 predictions, let’s look back at what I got right and wrong this year.
✅ What I got right
An all-new M.A.D.2 from MB&F. Yep.
Cartier re-releases the Tank Guichet. I’d seen a leak which turned out to be real.
More brands release quartz watches, led by the TAG Heuer Formula 1. And they’re kinda cool. More broadly, Dennison is still a thing, but there wasn’t as much new quartz as I think there should be.
Breitling announces another acquisition. It officially announced its Gallet acquisition, which I’d heard rumors about last year.
Two major brands introduce shaped watches. I’ll give myself credit for: (1) the Piaget Sixtie, and (2) partial credit for the pink gold Reverso and Tank à Guichet (not new watches, but fresh takes).
We’ll see a record price for a Gilbert Albert Patek Philippe. Happened twice: Loupe This sold a Patek 3412 for $717k, then Phillips sold a 3424 for $1m shortly after.
Clocks will have a moment and a major brand will release a clock. Rolex released a clock, Studio Underd0g and Chris Ward made a pocket watch, and multiple vintage pocket watches set auction records.
Privately held brands will continue to take market share from public ones. Per Morgan Stanley, the four largest private brands—Rolex, Patek, AP, and Richard Mille, increased their market share to 47% in 2024, up from 44% the previous year.
Swiss exports will be down 1%. According to the FHH, exports are down 1.6% YoY.
A new media-branded retail space opens. Time+Tide’s New York Studio is coming.
❌ What I got wrong
Tudor releases an updated Heritage Chronograph. I swear, after the gold Only Watch that never was, it’s gotta be coming!
Rolex releases a skeletonized Daytona. Lol.
Brands will find ways to lower prices without hurting their image. Nope, prices went up—also, tariffs happened.
The death of the “geezer watch.” There are still geezers as far as the eye can see.
Another one of the 10 largest Swiss brands will launch a certified pre-owned program. Nope, though AP’s should be coming soon.
Ups and downs: I take the annual report of the largest Swiss brands with a grain of salt, but it’s still fun. I guessed Swatch and Hermes would be up; TAG Heuer, IWC, and Longines would be down. I was right about IWC and Longines, but wrong about the others.
The Speedmaster will make its slow comeback. I like the new First Omega in Space, but the market for vintage Speedmasters is slowwww.
The secondary market will end below where it did in 2020. It got close in the spring, but the WatchCharts index has rebounded slightly since, staying above 2020 levels.
12 Predictions for 2026
Let’s start with a couple of predictions I got kinda right this year that I think will continue into 2026:
We’ll see another partnership between an independent/microbrand and a major Swiss brand. I predicted this in January—does the UR-Freak from Ulysse Nardin and Urwerk count? In 2026, we’ll see more microbrand mash-ups. Studio Underd0g’s collaborations with Fears, Chris Ward, and H. Moser provide a blueprint.
Private everything: Dinners, collector events, WhatsApp groups, and subscriptions. It’s cool not to be on social media. The Economist says the wealthy are giving up assets for experiences. Watches are everywhere now, which means exclusivity and access are what signal taste. It’s something that some private collectors and dealers already understand, but more will realize in 2026. When a new indie launches, it’s already common, if not expected, that they’ll start a WhatsApp group for their subscription clients to provide updates and offer a sense of “community.” Instagram has completely changed in the past few months, and as more videos from people we don’t even know pop up in our feeds, we’ll turn to those we trust for recommendations. The best info isn’t something you can search on the internet, but a secret you’re let in on.
That also means more in-person events and experiences. There were so many events this year, which will only continue. People are already getting excited about the Miami Beach Antique Show in March. As I saw all the photos of the Burj Khalifa from Dubai Watch Week in November, I kept thinking about how far removed it looked from NAABS, the vintage-focused meetup I reported from in February. There are tons of ways to experience this hobby, and enthusiasts seem hungry for more. “New York Watch Week” in October has become the unofficial annual gathering in the U.S., but it still feels like there’s untapped potential here. Perhaps a retailer will step in like Seddiqi in the Middle East or The Hour Glass in Asia. As brands continue to focus on delivering experiences, a word of caution: First, make good watches.
We’ll see de-consolidation or brand reorganization.
