January Recap: 2026 Predictions, Craft, and Lots of Vintage Rolex
Welcome to the 'perfect month.'
Happy February. For calendars that start on Sunday, it’s a “perfect month”: It starts on Sunday, February 1, and will end on a Saturday, meaning the entire month creates a perfect four-week grid with no empty squares. This won’t happen again until 2037.
Today’s newsletter has photos of vintage watches and your January Unpolished recap.
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In December, I visited a local collector, Adam, to hang out and talk watches. It was about zero degrees in Chicago—all too common this winter—which meant there was pretty much nothing else to do but drink hot coffee and chat watches.
Adam (this is his Instagram) has 250+ watches—everything from Art Deco American watches to 1970s Rolex to modern Hermes.1
I spent an hour or so taking photos of some of his Rolex collection, ranging from Bubblebacks to 70s sports watches. Since Instagram isn’t much of a photo-sharing app anymore, here are some photos before we get to the January recap.
Rolex began making the “Bubbleback” in the 1930s, using its waterproof Oyster case and first automatic “Perpetual” movement. It was primitive tech at the time, so they have fat casebacks that protrude out and wear tall on the wrist despite their small size—most measure just 30-32mm. In the 1980s, Bubblebacks became one of the first truly "collectible" wristwatches when collectors started scooping them up. It’s easy to see why: historically important and full of variety, there’s a real gotta catch ‘em all feel.
Over the past few years, smaller watches have become more popular (again), and it seems like some have tried to make the Bubbleback a thing again. It worked to some extent, but these near-antiques from the 1930s-40s remain mostly a niche for people who already have everything else.
I’ve never owned a Bubbleback—it’s one of those watches I’ve learned to appreciate without having any real desire to own. But I love them. Beyond the historical importance, so much design and details went into them. Sector, multi-tone, interesting numerals, along with different hands, bracelets, and cases—all catnip for collectors. For more on the Bubbleback, check out this article I wrote for the Mothership in 2024.
After the Bubblebacks and a few 1950s watches, we got into some 1960s and 70s sports watches, the real meat-and-potatoes of vintage Rolex.
First, a pair of Rolex Explorer 1016s, one from the 70s with a matte dial and one with a gilt dial from the 60s. In hand, you also start to notice other small differences. The case of the later 1016 feels more robust, with stronger lines, even though both measure 36mm:
Next, a Rolex Turn-o-Graph ref. 6202, the first of Rolex’s tool watches with a rotating bezel. Introduced in 1953, it came just before the Submariner (and GMT-Master). This one has a service dial—the “Swiss T < 25” under 6 o’clock indicates this dial had tritium, which Rolex transitioned to in the 60s after it became more clear that work with radium could be really, really bad. Even though it’s a service part, Rolex put a lot of thought into these: It’s a true gilt dial and this one’s taken on a rich brown color. It goes to show that something shouldn’t always be dismissed just because it’s “service.”
Here’s a Tudor Monte Carlo ref. 7169, named after its multi-colored scales. Introduced in 1971 and measuring 40mm, it’s wild to think how different and forward-looking this feels from the tiny manual-wind Daytonas introduced the exact same year. Put the Monte Carlo next to a Paul Newman, and the Rolex looks downright boring.
Next to that is a gilt Submariner ref. 5513. In my 2024 collector’s guide to the 5512, I wrote:
“Writing about the Rolex Submariner 5513 in 2024 is kind of like reviewing Led Zeppelin IV or Godfather II or maybe even just Oppenheimer in today’s world where culture moves faster than the flick of a thumb scroll. There’s not much that hasn’t been said about an exceedingly good but simple dive watch, or so it might seem. But also, sometimes it’s worth remembering: “Black Dog” just freakin’ rocks.”
A couple of years later, I still feel the same about the classic two-line Submariner.
Finally, an Explorer II ref. 1655. If the Daytona is kinda boring, the Explorer II is Rolex at its funky, 1970s, spelunking best. That bright orange 24-hour hand makes all the difference.
That’s enough photos for your inbox, let’s get to the monthly recap.
January Recap
Unpolished published 10 issues in January, including two podcasts with three founders: Nicholas Bowman-Scargill from Fears, and Alfred Chan & Phil Toledano of Toledano & Chan.
Follow on Spotify / Apple / RSS or search “Unpolished Watches” to get future episodes in your feed:
For paid subscribers
Here’s what paid subscribers received in January. Remember, you can always check out the full archive online, and upgrade your account here.
🔮 12 predictions and rumors for 2026. Always one of the most popular issues—what will we see from Rolex, Tudor, Omega, the “market,” and more this year? One of my predictions: De-consolidation and brand reorganization. “Rumors have swirled about Baume & Mercier, Zenith, De Bethune, Zodiac, and others,” I wrote. One month in, and Richemont has already sold off B&M.
⛳️ Are you playing the game you wanna play? Watch “collecting” often feels like a hobby bordering on vice (the good ones always are). Each January, some of us make resolutions, perhaps in a fit of post-Christmas clarity that could make a chestnut blush. Often, they’re focused on less: be intentional, consolidate, focus on the “grails.” Our watch box is a balance sheet that needs rebalancing. It’s something I feel. Collecting is kind of like a balloon—we’re constantly inflating or deflating our collection in search of…something. In this essay, I ask: Are you playing the collecting game you wanna play?
🔨 What does craft actually mean to you? Craft. Everyone says they’re doing it, but what does it actually mean? I asked makers and owners like Max Büsser, Sylvain Berneron, Rebecca Struthers, Josh Shapiro, but also collectors, including an Olympian, a Formula 1 lead, and more. I had a ton of fun putting this together.
🧐 Quick Study: Omega Seamaster Chronographs with Caliber 321. A short reference guide to my favorite caliber 321 chronograph, and it’s not a Speedmaster. These are beautiful dress chronographs with more variety than Grand Seiko dials, so I put it all in one place.
⚙️ A Theory of the Case. “Go back 10 years, and it was all about movements—everything had to be in-house,” says Nicholas Bowman-Scargill, Managing Director of Fears. He notes that lately, focus has shifted to the dial. “Five years ago, collectors wouldn’t have known their malachites from their hand-turned guilloché,” Attention has moved from movements to dials. And Nicholas thinks we’re about to see another shift: “Where I think we’ll see this go next is cases,” he says.
🪛 The $100 Screw: Inside American Watchmaking with Keaton Myrick. I spoke to watchmaker Keaton Myrick, who operates an independent workshop in rural Oregon. “I firmly believe a high-end restoration on a complicated piece is more challenging than making a watch,” Keaton says. “As a restorer, if I am working on a high-end watch from 1890-1930 (some would agree this was an era of some of the finest horological manufacturing and finishing), any component that is manufactured must look like it was there from day one. As an avid outdoorsman, I refer to this as ‘leave no trace watchmaking.’” Keaton talks more about the growing cottage industry of American watchmaking and why screws were costing him $100 to make.
😋 Get big or get eaten. Finally, last week’s issue included a roundup of news: How Oak & Oscar is making a dial in Chicago, the latest small brand that caught Rolex’s attention, and not the fun kind, and Audemars Piguet closingits last multi-brand retail location in the U.S.
🛒 Shop the Unpolished Store. Remember to shop the Unpolished Canvas Strap and Matte Calfskin in the Unpolished Store. Paid subscribers get 10% off, and all orders over $100 receive free shipping.
In January, we heard from the owners of two brands and a watchmaker. Let me know what you want to see more of over the next few months. January was relatively light on vintage coverage, but that’ll change in the coming weeks.
Thanks as always for reading. This is the first recap format I’ve done, so tap the heart (❤️) or let me know if it’s useful or intrusive.
-Tony
His Hamilton collection deserves its own museum.
The collector's taste in straps, slaps.
The 2 small seconds bubble backs make me yearn for an actually own a Rolex. Oh, let's throw in that Brown Service dial too. Time to go down the brown dial rabbit hole.